The promises of Emmanuel Macron and Valérie Pécresse are the most budgetary reasonable, believes the liberal think tank.
The Institut Montaigne combs the budget forecasts of the main presidential candidates. According to the liberal think tank, none of the programs of the five main candidates for the Élysée (Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Valérie Pécresse and Eric Zemmour) “is not balanced budget“, according to a note made for The echoes. The institute has revised upwards the quantification of the promises of the five candidates, none of which allows France to be placed on a trajectory of public deficit below the symbolic bar of 3%, even at the end of the next five-year term.
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Two groups of candidates can be distinguished, according to the think tank. On the one hand, Emmanuel Macron (LREM) and Valérie Pécresse (LR) present the most budgetary reasonable promises. On the other, Marine Le Pen (RN), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) and Eric Zemmour (Reconquest) “present a real risk for the debt and the sustainability of public finances“, estimates Victor Poirier, director of publications of the Montaigne Institute, quoted by The echoes.
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Increase in the public deficit
On the side of the first group, if the abolition of 200,000 civil servant posts promised by Valérie Pécresse would generate nearly 6 billion in savings for the State, the implementation of its program would generate an overall deficit of 35.1 billion. euros, according to the institute, against a positive balance of 42 billion promised by the right-wing candidate. With the president-candidate Emmanuel Macron, we arrive at an additional deficit of 44.5 billion euros. Partly because the 10 billion euros in savings announced in the operating expenses of local authorities would ultimately only lead to 5 billion euros in savings. Their programsdo not place the country on a solid sustainability trajectory“Judges the Institut Montaigne.
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Within the second group, that of Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Eric Zemmour, the figures are even more significantly revised upwards by the liberal think tank. For example, the expenses and tax gifts promised by the candidate of the National Rally would be 75% higher than the amount announced, at almost 120 billion. As a result, his program would increase the deficit by 102 billion euros. The figures are even more impressive for Eric Zemmour (145.8 billion) and especially for Jean-Luc Mélenchon (218.9 billion). For these three candidates,given this level of deficit and the absence of a recovery path for public finances, the financial markets could push France out of the euro zone“Warns the institute.
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