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Spurred on by a strong result in the parliamentary elections in Scotland, the ruling party SNP is urgently calling for a new independence referendum. “It is the will of the country,” said Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon, the chairman of the Scottish National Party (SNP), on Saturday evening. “The only people who can decide the future of Scotland are the Scots.” In the dispute over a new referendum, she played the ball into the field of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who strictly rejects a referendum.
Sturgeon said Johnson faces a “battle with the democratic desires of the Scottish people” if he tries to prevent a vote. The parliamentary election was seen as a mood test for the desire for independence.
Absolute majority missed by 1 seat
With 64 seats, the SNP narrowly missed an absolute majority. This requires 65 of the 129 seats in Parliament in Edinburgh. Together with the Greens, who will have 8 MPs, the pro-independence supporters definitely have a majority. Sturgeon spoke of a “historic” success. The head of government wants to bring an independent Scotland back into the EU.
For the SNP, it is the fourth election victory in a row in Scotland; compared to the previous vote in 2016, it was able to win three additional direct mandates. Sturgeon announced that it would press ahead with a referendum. A bill for this is already in the drawer.
“Irresponsible and ruthless referendum”
The British government, however, emphasizes that the independence issue was resolved in a 2014 referendum. Johnson turned down a new referendum on the weekend as “irresponsible and inconsiderate”. He told the Daily Telegraph: “This is not the time to have constitutional disputes and to talk about tearing our country apart when the people are more concerned with healing our economy and moving forward together.” The head of the Scottish Conservatives, Douglas Ross, said his party, the second largest force with 31 seats, had prevented an absolute SNP majority and a new referendum.
Most experts believe that a referendum would not be legal without the approval of London. But the result of the general election could increase the pressure on Johnson to allow another referendum.
Different interpretations of the results
British media predicted that the SNP would miss an absolute majority, playing into the hands of Johnson. On the other hand, the SNP and party-affiliated experts emphasize that it is not the SNP result alone that is decisive. “Boris Johnson is not some kind of fiefdom of Scotland,” said Vice Prime Minister John Swinney. What is more important is a majority in parliament.
The Scottish electoral system provides compensation mandates for weaker parties. That makes it difficult to get an absolute majority in the Edinburgh Parliament. The Greens reaffirmed their support for independence, but coalition talks have not yet taken place.
The dominant campaign theme was independence. Expert John Curtice from the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow observed tactical votes in several constituencies: there, supporters of a union with Great Britain often did not vote for their actual party, but for the representative of the opponents of independence with the greatest chance of victory. That could have prevented additional SNP seats. The turnout was more than 63 percent, higher than ever before. In many places there were long queues in front of polling stations.
The Supreme Court may ultimately decide on a referendum. Sturgeon told Channel 4: “If Boris Johnson wants to stop this, he has to go to court.” The SNP is aiming for a referendum by the end of 2023.
“It would be irresponsible to have another referendum and another debate on the constitution if we should make our way out of this pandemic and focus on economic recovery,” cabinet member George Eustice told Times Radio. The SNP, on the other hand, insists that the initial situation has changed as a result of Brexit. The majority of the Scots rejected leaving the EU in the 2016 Brexit referendum, but were outvoted.
Because of the corona pandemic, the count of Thursday’s vote had only started on Friday and was interrupted overnight. (SDA)