Putin at the limits of his martial arts

Russian President Vladimir Putin regularly shows off his skills in judo and other martial arts. Success in these sports often hinges on what the Japanese call “kuzushi” – throwing opponents off balance with techniques that upset their physical and mental balance.

Putin has sought to unbalance the United States and its NATO allies by mobilizing more than 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border. Putin, who makes no bones about the fact that he sees Russia and Ukraine as inherently connected, may see restoring such a relationship as an opportunity to cement his legacy by erasing the perceived ignominy Russia has suffered over the decades suffered after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Planned approach

Putin may have believed that a threat to Ukraine would destabilize the country and provide an opportunity to replace the current pro-Western government with one far more pliable to the Kremlin. More likely, Putin assumed his troop mobilization would pressure the US and its relatively new President, Joe Biden, to accept Ukraine’s return to Russia’s sphere of influence.

After all, the US had just completed a chaotic and almost unconditional withdrawal from Afghanistan. With the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Putin got away with it largely with impunity. And Chinese President Xi Jinping has paid little, if any, price for ending democracy in Hong Kong. From afar, the US therefore looked weak, divided and self-absorbed.

Putin has placed himself in an unenviable position: he must either escalate or find a way to back down without losing face.

Add to that Putin’s lack of respect for America’s European allies. Germany’s unwise decision to phase out nuclear energy has made it even more dependent on Russian gas and, as was often the case for West Germany during the Cold War, is uneasy about confronting the Kremlin.

In addition, Putin began his military buildup as winter approached, when low temperatures and high fuel prices would give the Kremlin additional clout. The French were focused on their upcoming presidential election, while the UK was preoccupied with Covid-19, Brexit and the behavior of Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

In addition, Putin has taken steps to reduce Russia’s own vulnerability, particularly to economic sanctions. The country’s foreign exchange reserves hit a record $630 billion in December 2021, while high oil prices brought significant revenue to the government. And China, which is already providing diplomatic support, could offer financial help should the Kremlin need it.

Comprehensive Response

But while Putin constructed the Ukraine crisis assuming he had a clear advantage over the West, he made a mistake that can prove dangerous even for a skilled martial artist: he underestimated his opponent.

While Joe Biden and NATO have said they will not intervene directly in Ukraine’s interests, that is not tantamount to accepting Russian dominance. Rather, the US organized a comprehensive response. They have supplied arms to Ukraine to increase the cost to Russia of a possible invasion and occupation. There are plans to increase the presence in the NATO member countries closest to Russia. Significant economic sanctions are in preparation. And diverting gas to Europe would partially offset the potential loss of Russian supplies.

All of this means that Putin’s first foray failed to strike the decisive blow. Those who claim that the Russian president has the West where he wants it are making a mistake. Putin has placed himself in an unenviable position: he must either escalate or find a way to back down without losing face.

The US has wisely provided Putin with a diplomatic way out. This could entail a new structure to support European security and arms control agreements that would limit the scope and location of a number of systems. A revived and revised Minsk Accords would seek a political solution for eastern Ukraine that would give residents of the region (many of whom are ethnic Russians) broad autonomy and replace Russian soldiers with international peacekeeping forces. The US has also signaled that Ukraine will not join NATO anytime soon, and more.

Whether such a result will satisfy Putin is uncertain. He won’t hear what he wants – that Ukraine can never join NATO, or that NATO forces will retreat to where they were more than two decades ago, before the alliance expanded into central and eastern Europe. But Putin should have a few more weeks to think about his next steps. He will travel to Beijing for the opening of the Winter Olympics – and Xi may have made it clear that he would not welcome the opportunity to visit China ahead of the autumn Communist Party convention, where he will run for a third term. to put it in perspective would be overshadowed by a war in Ukraine.

Now who is out of balance?

Putin has another option. He could increase Russia’s military presence in the Western Hemisphere and claim to meet the US as it and NATO met Russia. But that would be risky and would do nothing to clarify his interests in Europe.

It is impossible to predict what Putin will do, and he may not have made up his mind yet. He could well opt for a so-called “minor intrusion,” or limited intervention, to potentially increase Russia’s military presence in eastern Ukraine.

By doing so, Putin would have something to show for his aggressive diplomacy without incurring major sanctions, since NATO’s 30 members are unlikely to reach a consensus on how to respond. This would also be in line with the martial arts approach of looking for tactical weaknesses to throw the opponent off balance.

However, such a scenario shows the limitations of martial arts, which are more about tactics than strategy. This largely engineered crisis in Ukraine risks leaving Russia worse off: it would control a little more territory, but face new sanctions, a stronger NATO, and a neighbor whose people have developed a more distinct, anti-Russian identity.

Thus, when he returns to his dacha, Putin would be wise to delve into another game closely associated with Russia: chess, in which the best players think several moves ahead and show respect for their opponent.

Richard Hass is President of the US think tank Council on Foreign Relations. Translated from the English by Sandra Pontow. -Copyright Project Syndicate2022.