“Question of Hours or Days”
Ex-General: Militarily things will soon be over
2/25/2022 3:36 p.m
It is an unequal conflict: the Ukrainian military is vastly outnumbered by Russia. The weapons don’t stand up to the comparison either. Experts see this as a reason for an early end to the war. They give the Armed Forces of Ukraine no more than a few days.
The ex-general and former advisor to Angela Merkel, Erich Vad, assumes that the military operation in Ukraine will not last much longer. Accordingly, it is “only a matter of a few days or hours until the matter is militarily settled,” he said in an interview with ntv.
Erich Vad is a former general and ex-adviser to former Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Political scientist Markus Kaim from the Foundation for Science and Politics also assumes this in an interview with ntv. “Things could go quickly now, especially if we succeed in beheading Ukraine’s political decision-making structure, arresting the president and signing some sort of surrender from Ukraine.” He expects that “the whole thing will take place within a few days”. However, if the population resisted and a kind of guerrilla war ensued, “then that would increase the cost of blood on the Russian side,” Kaim warned.
Ex-General Vad sees Ukraine’s military inferiority as the main reason for the expected end of the military conflict. “The situation of the Ukrainian armed forces is worryingly bad.” They are not only outnumbered by the Russian army, but also have fewer main weapon systems. Vad stressed that from the very beginning the military-strategic starting point of the whole conflict was not such that Ukraine could have been defended.
“Europe does not take place in this conflict”
Lothar Domröse, general out of service, also emphasized to ntv that the equipment of the Ukrainian army is very outdated. In a way, “we’re dealing with a high-tech force on the Russian side and a rifle army with a few tanks and artillery pieces on the Ukrainian side.” That cannot be won.
Ex-General Vad considers it “militarily nonsensical” to deliver weapons at this point in time. “You should have done that sooner,” said the ex-general. At this point it would not change anything militarily. However, the Bundeswehr’s options were limited anyway, since they were “inadequately equipped themselves”. “The depots are empty,” said Vad. “The Bundeswehr doesn’t have enough protective vests itself.” Before any deployment abroad, she would have to “collect” soldiers and military personnel.
Moreover, Vad does not believe that the Russian government will also attack NATO territory. “I don’t think Putin dares to do that.” Nevertheless, the West must show limits so that “the example of the Ukraine does not whet Putin’s appetite for more.” Germany can be very happy to be a member of NATO, said Vad. “We can also be happy to have the Americans in the alliance.” According to the ex-general, however, the Europeans should continue to develop their military capabilities. He emphasized: “Europe does not take place in this conflict.” It’s only about the USA, Russia and China.
Vad doesn’t see Ukraine’s NATO membership as a possibility in the near future, primarily “because the Russians have created a fait accompli by occupying Donbass.” NATO will not accept any state with internal conflicts. “Putin knows that, of course, and he takes it into account.”