Rate: widespread tension despite often mediocre stats


Bad day on the bond markets at the end of the session, which was particularly heavy in terms of figures, and despite a decline in the stock market indices which could have caused some arbitrage in favor of Treasury bills.

T-Bonds deteriorate by +6.5 Pts to 1.775%, the ‘UMICH’ household confidence index is a disappointment: the morale of American households is at half mast with a fall from 70.6% to 68.8% .
The monthly survey by the University of Michigan provides other interesting indications: in detail, the sub-index relating to the assessment of current conditions fell from 74.2% in December to 73.2% in January. Furthermore, the consumer expectations index fell to 65.9%, against 68.3% the previous month.
The -1.9% fall in retail sales in December does not explain the decline in US T-Bonds either.
Same heaviness on the Eurozone side with Bunds and OATs which tightened by +5Pts (0.3423% and -0.0370%).
In France, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% over one month in December 2021, after +0.4% in November according to INSEE. Over one year, consumer prices increased by 2.8%, as in November.

Further south, the Bonos deteriorated by +3.5 Pts to 0.6400% while consumer prices recorded in December their highest rate of increase since May 1992, show figures published Thursday by the National Institute of statistics (INE).

The rise in the national inflation index (CPI) stood at 1.2% compared to November, which brings its increase to 6.5% on an annual basis.
The INE explains this increase by the 23.3% jump recorded in housing costs from one year to the next, a surge which it explains by the sharp rise in electricity prices in 2021.

In Italy, the BTPs tend by +5Pts 1.3410%, the British Gilts are in unison with +5Pts 1.1580%.

To come back to the US figures, retail sales: they fell by -1.9% in December in the United States (against +0.2% expected), after a minimal increase of 0.2% in November, the months of Thanksgiving and ‘Black Friday’.
According to the Department of Commerce, American households notably reduced their purchases of furniture (-5.5%), electronic products (-2.9%), clothing (-3.1%) and sporting goods and cultural (-4.3%).

Over the whole of the 2021 financial year, retail sales nevertheless rose by 19.3%, consumption in the 1st half and then in July/August having been boosted by federal checks.

US import prices fell 0.2% in December, after rising 0.7% the previous month, the US Department of Labor announced today. Over 1 year, import prices nevertheless rose by 10.4%.

The prices of imported petroleum products fell by 6.5% after two consecutive increases of +11.1% in October and +2.3% in November.
Excluding oil, import prices only rose by 0.5% in December.
For their part, export prices fell by 1.8% in December, after a gain of 0.8% in November, but rose by 14.7% over one year.

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