Reaction to Trump's Chaos Years: A Plan to Save the United States

Donald Trump has cracked the foundations of the United States. A democratic law is now supposed to save democracy. With the "For the People Act" they want to modernize the electoral system, make it fairer and simplify it. But the plan threatens to fail because of the Republicans.

Donald Trump has shaken US democracy. Not only did the former US president spread bold lies during his four years in office, drove society to divide, vilified the media, paved the way for racism into mainstream politics and disregarded rules that were intended to limit his power. Trump also discredited the United States' electoral system, particularly postal and postal voting, by vehemently insisting on being a victim of electoral fraud.

Shortly before he had to leave his office, he instigated an attack on parliament, the Capitol in Washington. The January 6 uprising showed the world how deep the cracks had become in the world's oldest democracy. But the Capitol Storm did not start until the day of the attack. The mood that led to it had fired Trump through rhetoric and action in four years in office.

The ex-president was able to build on existing narratives and structures: for example, the talk of voter suppression, which is often racially motivated. The influence of the money of the super-rich, of companies, of super-PACs and other so-called "dark money" organizations on elections. And politically motivated gerrymandering – the manipulation of constituency boundaries in order to turn numerical minorities into political majorities.

"Republicans benefit from structural advantages"

The Democrats now want to put an end to this dangerous state of the United States with a law. The "For the People Act" is supposed to become federal law – as soon as possible. The legal term of the bill is H.R. 1, which stands for House Resolution number one and underscores its status as the top legislative priority. In the House of Representatives, from 2018 under Trump in the hands of the Democrats, the draft was passed in 2019. However, the majority Republican Senate threw him down at the time. It is now set to become the first proposal that the new Senate Democratic majority will put on the table for Joe Biden to sign. But even in this second attempt, the law will meet strong opposition from Republicans.

"From the point of view of the Democrats – and also from the point of view of democracy theory – the electoral system in the USA must indeed be modernized urgently," says Thomas Greven, an expert on the party system in the USA at the John F. Kennedy Institute at the Free University of Berlin. The "For the People Act" intends to do just that and above all is intended to make voting easier for US citizens, reduce the influence of money on politics and tighten ethical rules for politicians. This is necessary, said US expert Greven to ntv.de, because: "Roughly speaking, the Republicans benefit from structural advantages that over-represent their voters, and they are also prepared to legally and administratively prevent Democratic voters from voting, in particular Minority groups and young voters. "

Specifically, the almost 600-page bill aims to oblige all states to offer online voter registration, set up automatic voter registration, allow voter registrations on the day of a presidential election, and allow at least 15 days for early voting. The right to vote for offenders after leaving prison is also to be restored in all states. The law would make it a criminal offense to "disturb or prevent another person from voting". In addition, election day (traditionally a Tuesday in the USA) should be a national holiday so that people are not deterred from going to the ballot box due to job-related reasons. In addition, postal ballot papers should no longer require postage.

In order to reduce the influence of money on politics, the law aims to improve the transparency of campaign financing. Super-PACs, that is, interest groups that raise money for the election campaign from candidates, would have to disclose donors who give more than 10,000 US dollars. In the US, political spending by super PACs and nonprofits is referred to as "dark money" because stakeholders are not required to name their donors and can therefore receive unlimited donations from corporations, individuals and unions and influence elections without being allowed to voters know where the money comes from. The "For the People Act" also requires online platforms to make public which people buy political ads worth at least $ 500.

With a finger pointing in the direction of Donald Trump, the bill obliges presidents and vice-presidents as well as the presidential and vice-presidential candidates to make their income tax returns for the past ten years public. Up until now this was only common, not mandatory; As is well known, Trump did not follow this tradition. The law would also prevent gerrymandering by requiring states to set up independent commissions (made up of five Democrats, five Republicans, and five independents) to redraw the boundaries of Congressional districts.

Every ten years the constituencies in the USA are re-cut. Republicans in particular, but also Democrats, try again and again to draw the borders to their advantage and to assemble as many of their own voters as possible in a newly divided electoral district, or to divide up the voters of the opposing party. The borders will be redrawn again in 2021, this time the Grand Old Party has far more control over the process than the Democrats and could create a balance of power that would give it an advantage for the House of Representatives that would last for several election cycles. With the "For the People Act", partisan gerrymandering would be forbidden because the commissions would have to adhere to criteria of equal standing.

"Democracy is in deep decline"

"HR 1 restores people's confidence that the government works for the public interest, the interests of the people, and not for other special interests," House Democratic spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi said in 2019, adding at the beginning of this Year added: "Our democracy is in a state of deep decline. (…) Our historic reform efforts will remove decades of dysfunctional Washington, restore power to the people and build a more just and prosperous country for all Americans." Numerous civil rights organizations also support the draft law.

"The Republicans will try by all means to prevent this law," believes US expert Greven. The Republicans, traditionally against too much power on the part of the executive branch in Washington, see in the law with the statewide electoral rules a power shift from the states to the federal government, which they should stop. They also do not believe that there need to be new electoral laws, after all, the turnout in the 2020 US presidential election was just under 67 percent, which was the highest turnout in 100 years.

As the law was debated in 2019, J. Christian Adams, president of the Public Interest Legal Foundation, who was also a member of Trump's first short-lived electoral fraud commission in 2016, said, "Indeed, it is difficult to miss the opportunity to vote. " But the 2020 presidential election also showed that electoral efforts were massively suppressed and parts of the population are excluded due to high hurdles. Since then, the Grand Old Party has made massive efforts in various states to introduce tougher electoral laws that directly contradict the "For the People Act".

"Snap" Democrats for Power?

For the Republicans, after losing the election, the main thing now is not to slip into even worse prospects for the future. The Senate majority leader at the time, Republican Mitch McConnell, called the bill the "Law to Protect Democratic Politicians" and a "snap for power" two years ago. In an opinion piece for the Washington Post, he wrote that the Democrats "want to change the rules of American politics to help a party".

McConnell's party feared that the law could make it easier for minorities who traditionally vote democratically, and help early or postal voters, who also tend to be Democrats. The Republicans are likely to be bothered by the transparency of super-PACs and "dark money", since the conservatives' donations are always greater than those of the Democrats. Greven from the John F. Kennedy Institute says, "Loosely parallels Donald Trump," says Greven, "that if this law comes into force and it is actually easier for citizens to vote, no Republican can ever win an election again."

So even in 2021 it will be difficult for the Democrats to turn the draft into a law. In the Senate they only need a simple majority (with Vice President Kamala Harris they have 51 of 101 votes) to pass a law. But it takes 60 senators out of 100 to end a debate on the law. Some Republicans have already announced that they will use the filibuster, an endless speech in the Senate, to crush the law – so the Democrats would need ten senators from the opposite side to end the conduct. The Democrats are counting on the public to support the draft and put pressure on the Republicans. In a poll conducted at the end of January, 67 percent of the Americans surveyed supported the "For the People Act". Even among Republican voters, there was a majority of 56 percent in favor.

"If at all, the law will probably only be passed in a very watered-down form," believes US expert Greven: "Unless the Democrats decide to abolish the filibuster in the Senate." Indeed, this step seems possible. John Sarbanes, one of the architects of H.R. 1, told Rolling Stone magazine that "there will be increasing pressure on filibuster reform, especially when it comes to the basic rules for how our democracy works". However, the Democrats would need a two-thirds majority in the Senate to abolish the filibuster. With the creation of a new precedent, the elimination could also succeed with a simple majority.

Whether the USA can successfully reverse Trump's course, strengthen the foundations of its democracy again and partially patch up the cracks in it depends, among other things, on the "For the People Act" these days. But the chances are not good. The law is likely to cause a lot of discussion and lead to trench warfare between the parties. It could give the Biden government its first major victory – or it could end in a major defeat.