Reisner’s look at the front: “See a remarkable success of Ukraine”

Cluster munitions are banned internationally and the US decision to supply them to Ukraine drew strong criticism from Western allies over the weekend. From a military point of view, however, one has to admit that the type of projectile has a high impact, says Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner in a weekly interview. “Ukraine can use it to attack concentrated troop units on the one hand and Russian reserves on the other.” That’s exactly the reason why the Ukrainians haven’t had a breakthrough so far. According to Reisner, the Ukrainians are still making “remarkable” progress – especially in the south and north of Bakhmut, which could even threaten the Russians with encirclement at some point.

ntv.de: Last week you said that the Ukrainians had changed their tactics when attacking on the battlefield. Can you already see that they are having success with this?

Markus Reisner: About 14 days ago, Ukraine began deploying smaller attack groups in combat zones five to nine kilometers wide, with the task of probing where there might be gaps in the Russian defense line. If such a gap is found, Ukraine will have mechanized battle groups ready in depth. These usually consist of several main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers and are pulled forward to try to exploit the discovered gap. The idea is that you then advance very quickly, get past the Russian positions and get to a point where you can get stuck. Ideally, this is a town. However, Ukraine has not yet succeeded in doing so in the long term.

How does Russia react to this tactic?

The Russians are conducting a so-called mobile defense. That means they are prepared for such advances. They try to spot where a Ukrainian assault group is probing and deploy their reserves there or use their forces against the combat groups that are being pushed behind by Ukraine. This is where the intent to deliver cluster munitions comes into play. Because Ukraine is trying to prevent precisely this reserve deployment by the Russians.

What effect could Ukraine achieve with cluster munitions?

On the one hand, it can be used to combat concentrated troop units that are already attacking on the front line. On the other hand, attempts are being made to hit the Russians as they approach, so that the Ukrainian breakthrough attempt can be successful on a small scale.

How far behind the front line can the Ukrainians attack the Russian reserves? What is the range of the cluster munitions supplied from the USA?

It depends on the type of ammo. As we now know, it is likely that M864 ammunition will be supplied, which will be fired by artillery, i.e. from 155 mm caliber barrels. Each floor carries a total of 72 small so-called bomblets. These are small explosive devices that have a large area effect. This is exactly what is suitable for attacking reserve forces or troop concentrations. The range depends on the size of the propellant used and is up to twenty kilometers.

Does it make a big difference militarily for the Ukrainians to use these cluster munitions?

Both sides have been using this ammunition since the beginning of the war. On the one hand the Russians, with their BM-27 or BM-30 Smerch multiple rocket launchers. But Ukraine has also started using cluster munitions because they are particularly suitable for troop concentrations and you can have an effect over a sufficiently large area. This is also the intention here.

So why is there a renewed argument about whether the US should supply this type of ammunition to Ukraine when both sides are already using it?

This has to do with the fact that in 2003 more than 100 countries joined an agreement that bans such ammunition. If any of these countries used cluster munitions, they would be violating international law. However, it is correct to say that the USA, Russia and Ukraine have not joined the agreement.

If Ukraine already has cluster munitions of its own, why does it need more?

It is expected that through the increased use of this ammunition it might be possible to break through the Russian positions by attacking the position systems on the one hand and making it impossible for the Russians to bring up reserves on the other. It was precisely these reserves that often brought Ukraine’s advances to a standstill. You want to prevent that from happening.

Couldn’t you just supply more artillery shells?

This is exactly the problem of Ukraine. You face the challenge of not having enough artillery ammunition. It is estimated that last summer Russia fired up to 80,000 rounds of ammunition per day and the Ukrainian side around 20,000 to 30,000 rounds. These numbers have decreased somewhat this year, but it is still the case that the Russian side has an advantage in sheer numbers of ammunition. The European Union wants to deliver one million artillery shells by the end of the year. The problem, however, is that Ukraine has too little artillery ammunition to be able to achieve an effect comparable to that of a shell that ejects 72 small explosive devices over a large area.

If both sides soon use more cluster munitions, how will it be possible to later rid Ukraine of unexploded duds?

This is a fundamental question that has arisen in recent months as a result of the massive use of artillery ammunition. According to experts, Russia fired around seven million artillery shells last year. Some even assume up to ten million. Then there is the ammunition that Ukraine has fired. Especially in those areas that are called the breadbasket of Ukraine. So these are tasks that will keep us busy for the next few decades. Bosnia has been suffering from mined areas since the Balkan wars. Cluster munitions exacerbate the problem. Ammunition eligible for shipment has an approximate dud rate of three to thirteen percent. That is already very high and must be cleared so that the civilian population is not massively injured and because these are wheat-growing areas. All this has to be restored if wheat is ever to be grown there again.

The delivery of cluster munitions has sparked much outrage and criticism from US and Ukraine allies. Do you find a delivery morally reprehensible or do you think the military advantage outweighs it?

I am a member of the armed forces of a country that has signed the convention not to possess or use cluster munitions. So I am bound by these guidelines. But if you look at it from a purely military point of view, you have to admit that it has a high impact due to the way this bullet is designed. The huge challenge is to clean up after the conflict in a way that does not result in maiming or injuring civilians. That was also the reason why this convention was reached. The idea of ​​such a convention is that everyone adheres to it, everyone signs. If that is not the case, then we have the very dilemma that one can use it and the other cannot.

Let’s look at the front line again. Are the Ukrainians making progress with their new tactics?

The largest advances are being made by Ukrainian troops in the south near Welyka Nowosilka achieved, here it is now four to five kilometers. But we don’t see a massive breakthrough yet. The situation in Bakhmut can be described as significant. The urban area is still in Russian hands, but in the north and especially in the south of it the Ukrainians managed to push back these front advances by the Russians. Indeed, here we see a remarkable success of Ukraine.

Will the Russians then face encirclement in Bakhmut, like the Ukrainians once did?

That could be if the Ukrainians were able to push the advances in northern and southern Bakhmut much further east. Then the city could become a cauldron for the Russian side. But that is not the case yet.

Vivian Micks spoke to Markus Reisner