Reisner’s view of the front: “The Ukrainians were invisible to the Russians”

In the night and fog, Ukraine manages to establish several bridgeheads on the southern bank of the Dnipro. According to Colonel Markus Reisner, success is of the utmost importance – and a dilemma for the Russians. In doing so, Ukraine shows “that it is very capable of regaining the momentum for itself“said the military expert in an interview. However, the bridgeheads are not yet resilient enough for an advance south.

ntv.de: Mr. Reisner, the week starts with positive news for Ukraine: They have succeeded in establishing several bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro and bringing hundreds of soldiers to the other bank. How did you do that?

Markus Reisner: Tactically, Ukraine managed to control the electromagnetic field very intelligently. This is the field where drones are controlled via radio signals, where connections to the command posts are made and where the artillery’s fire orders are called up. Ukraine has massed some forces along the riverbank north of Kherson, trying to form so-called local bubbles under which forces have operated.

What are local bubbles?

Local bubbles mean that the electromagnetic space dominated by the Ukrainians makes it impossible or only very limited for the Russians to use their drones for reconnaissance. This means that they cannot designate targets for their artillery fire or for the use of air-to-ground weapons that they repeatedly drop. Under the protection of these local bubbles, the Ukrainians managed to consolidate their forces, mass them and, in a next step, expand a bridgehead and connect these bridgeheads with each other. But the weather also played a beneficial role.

In what way?

Part of the wet weather in the region at the moment is that it is very often foggy in the morning. Under the protection of the fog and the secure electromagnetic space I mentioned, the Ukrainians were able to cross by boat to the southern bank: The Ukrainians were invisible to the Russians. This has gradually increased over the last two weeks until Ukraine even managed to get individual armored vehicles to the other side. The problem, however, is that the bridgeheads are still not really resilient.

What does that mean?

If Ukraine wants to carry out an operation from there, then these bridgeheads must be expanded and secured, i.e. consolidated. Then they need pontoon bridges to get really heavy equipment to the south side to actually transition from a tactical success to an operational success.

How many bridgeheads has Ukraine established in total now?

There are different sources. But at least three, one of which is really significant. This is the bridgehead at Krynky, the extent of which is relatively extensive.

According to the Ukrainian military, they have already pushed the Russians three to eight kilometers away from the river. That sounds like a lot when you consider how progress on other sections of the front is usually only a few hundred meters.

Eight kilometers cannot be confirmed at the moment. The only thing that can be confirmed with certainty is what can actually be seen on film. That is, it takes videos from several sites where you can see that Ukrainian soldiers are in a village, a bridge or a railway line in order to say that they have taken possession of this space. So far they have managed to advance into the flood plain in the Krynky area and near Datschi and have also established themselves. However, there is still no breakthrough out of this flood area to the south. This would be the case with Krynky if Ukraine succeeded not only in taking the town to the south, but also in reaching the extensive forest area behind it.

Russia is said to have lost up to 3,500 soldiers in the advance on the Dnipro, 1,200 of whom were killed, according to Ukrainian information. Is this information correct, and if so, why are the Russian losses so high?

You have to be careful there. Both sides claim horrendous losses for the other side. Here, too, you can only judge whether there are high losses or not by looking at the trend, which can be seen by observing many different videos. An example: In mid-October there were several very costly Russian advances in Avdiivka. This could be seen because videos from Ukrainian drones showed that dozens of vehicles were destroyed and dozens of soldiers were killed. That was an indicator of heavy losses. Of course, this cannot be quantified exactly because both sides try to keep their own losses low and those inflicted on their opponents high.

And these videos don’t exist from the south bank of the Dnipro?

There are dozens of videos of Ukrainian drones along the Dnipro, from Kherson to the east, which actually attack Russian positions. In contrast to Avdiivka, there are no such extensive attacks from Ukraine, which would have led to high losses on the Russian side. These loss figures should therefore be viewed with caution. The Russian units on site are still holding their positions.

Nevertheless, the crossings on the left bank, which until recently was completely occupied, are a much-needed success in the faltering offensive. What significance does the move have for Ukraine and what consequences for the Russians?

This operation is very important for Ukraine because it managed to regain attention in the information space. It distracts from the fact that the Ukrainians are currently under great pressure, especially in the east. The main thing is that Ukraine must not disappear from the public eye and that it makes sense in the eyes of the allies to continue supporting Kiev. In the last two weeks in particular, there have been many media reports – especially in English-speaking countries – that have questioned very critically what will happen next and that Ukraine needs to be honest about the offensive. With these successes, Ukraine shows that it is very capable of regaining the momentum. Of course, we now have to wait and see whether it will actually be possible to expand this success.

And for the Russians?

Russia has the dilemma that dominance in the information space has fallen back to Ukraine.

What about the rest of the front? Are both sides still in a stalemate there?

At Avdiivka the Russian side is still advancing slowly but steadily. This can be seen especially north-west of the town, where they manage to advance along the railway line and have also crossed it. There is very heavy fighting in the industrial area in the northwest and also on the southern edge, where the Russians are also advancing. Elsewhere on the front the situation is unchanged: between Kupyansk and Svatove there is great pressure from the Russian side to the Ukrainian side. There is volatile fighting in the central area near Robotyne, where Ukraine attempted another advance on Sunday but was repelled. The biggest success Ukraine has at the moment is along the Dnipro.

As you yourself say, this primarily serves the purpose of ensuring that the West continues to support Ukraine. The EU wants to deliver one million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine by March. Do you think that’s enough?

I think we have to ask the question again very critically as to whether it wasn’t actually agreed to do this by the end of the year. The fact that this has now been delayed until March actually means that the promises cannot be kept. It is also assumed that only around 300,000 pieces of ammunition can be delivered by the end of the year. That’s only a third of what was actually promised.

What do you think Ukraine needs in order to get through the winter well and not lose any territory to Russia and to prepare for an offensive in the spring?

Ukraine is now slowly approaching a culmination point and this will determine the West’s support for Ukraine. If the West wants Ukraine to continue to be able to repel Russian attacks or even retake territory, then the West must support the country more than it has so far – and significantly so. Not just with artillery, but also with a number of other weapon systems. If that is not the case and the West is unwilling to do so, then Ukraine will be forced to narrow its goals. Presumably Ukraine’s goal will then be to consolidate over the winter so that it is able to carry out new actions in the spring. Everything stands or falls with the support of the West.

Vivian Micks spoke to Markus Reisner