Reisner’s view of the front: “The war in Israel is playing into the hands of the Russians”

This week, Reisner’s look at the front lines is primarily about Hamas’ attack on Israel. The Israeli army has a kind of zone concept for the defense of the country, explains Colonel Markus Reisner in an interview with ntv.de: “If there is a breakthrough, several rear defense lines are immediately set up. That was also successful. But it took time and a lot of space cost before the army got the situation under control.” He doesn’t see an imminent end to the war: “Overall, an escalation is to be expected, because the Israelis’ attempt to free the hostages and fight Hamas will result in a massive use of military means.”

With a view to the Russian war against Ukraine, Reisner sees a failure of the Ukrainian offensive. There are also signs of an increase in missile warfare: “This suggests that this winter could be particularly hard. (…) In my view, the signs point to a storm here.”

ntv.de: This week, let’s exceptionally start with another war, that of Hamas against Israel. How is it that the Israeli Defense Forces, one of the most modern armies in the world, were so caught off guard?

Markus Reisner: That’s the question everyone is currently asking themselves. There are several possible explanations. On the one hand, it is possible that the Israeli army was actually taken completely by surprise because it did not read the signs correctly. But it is also conceivable that the signs were recognized, but then the more than 30 breakthroughs by Hamas created a domino effect that could not be captured so quickly. The Israeli army is currently busy fighting the invaders. But there will certainly be a lot to work on later.

This is already the most costly war for Israel since the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Could you have imagined that Hamas fighters would invade Israeli towns, kill civilians, take hostages and occupy buildings?

The Israeli army actually has a very sophisticated security concept. But in recent years it has placed the emphasis on the north of Israel and the West Bank. It was apparently assumed that the Gaza Strip was under control. The Israeli army has a kind of zone concept for the defense of the country: If a breakthrough occurs, several rear defense lines are immediately set up. That also succeeded. But it took a long time and a lot of space before the army got the situation under control. One can therefore assume that the Israeli security concept did not work, at least in part, as intended. By the way, the breakthroughs were not only above ground, but also through tunnel systems. This has also led to Hamas being able to penetrate very deeply into Israel.

Does Hamas have a military goal it is trying to achieve with this attack, or is it just to put on a show?

The first and most important goal that Hamas has achieved is to discredit the Israeli army’s aura of invincibility. Not only did the Hamas fighters manage to break through the security fortifications, they also captured Israeli tanks, including the famous Merkava battle tank. The worst thing about all of these events is that there are now over 700 dead Israelis and one has to assume that more than 100 people, including many women and children, have been taken hostage, which is also a disaster from a military perspective because it makes the situation extremely complicated. At the same time, one must say very clearly: Hamas has no opportunity to sustainably implement its success. But it has achieved its goal of casting doubt on the superiority of the Israeli army, at least in the eyes of its sympathizers.

How dangerous would a two-front war be for Israel? How dangerous are the opponents, Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah, from a military perspective?

The problem is always simultaneity. There is the military concept of oversaturation. Many attacks at the same time can leave a defender unable to defend against them to the best of his ability. The Gaza Strip is a good example of this. The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system is also used to prevent the Israeli army from having to invade the Gaza Strip or southern Lebanon with ground troops. But if too many rockets are launched at the same time, even the Iron Dome will eventually be overwhelmed, and potentially costly ground operations may become unavoidable. That seems to be the case now, as the Israeli army has already announced that it wants to eliminate Hamas once and for all. If Hezbollah then strikes in southern Lebanon, it can be assumed that the Israeli army will come under considerable pressure.

Do you have any predictions for how long this war will last?

This cannot be estimated at the moment. But due to the incredible brutality with which this attack was carried out by Hamas terrorists and the high number of dead and kidnapped, one can assume that Israel will try to destroy Hamas – whatever that means in concrete terms. Overall, an escalation is to be expected because the Israelis’ attempt to free the hostages and fight Hamas will involve a massive use of military means. This will further antagonize Hamas and its sympathizers and potentially lead to a conflagration.

Let’s turn briefly to Ukraine. According to British information, Ukraine liberated “almost certainly at least 125 square kilometers of land” in the region around Velyka Novosilka over the summer. Is that a lot or a little?

When you read what the British… write here, then one has to say with great disillusionment: The West is currently in the process of admitting that the Ukrainian offensive has failed. Essentially, the British Ministry of Defense says that in liberating these 125 square kilometers, Ukraine managed to tie down significant parts of the Russian army. But that is far from what the operational goal was, namely the breakthrough to the Sea of ​​Azov, combined with the strategic goal of forcing the Russians to the negotiating table. I would say that the British are trying to reinterpret the narrative and thereby limit the damage.

If you look at what has happened in the last two days, you have to say that the Russians have managed to go on the offensive in some places. For example, in the Kupyansk area in eastern Ukraine, in the Kharkiv Oblast. The Russians began to attack between Kupyansk and Ivanivka, a town about 15 kilometers southeast of Kupyansk. In a sort of preparatory phase, they destroyed three bridges over the Oskil to isolate Ukrainian forces on the eastern side of the river. These attacks are associated with Russian losses. But the Russians are still trying to gain the momentum here. And actually the opposite should be the case; Actually, the Ukrainian side should have the momentum.

Ukrainian journalist Denis Trubetskoy says, in Ukraine, given the difficult counter-offensive in the south, there is “a lot of discussion about whether the time is now against Ukraine.” How do you see that?

That’s exactly how it is. Military offensives have four factors to consider: force, space, time and information. With regard to the force factor, it must be said that Ukraine has already deployed the bulk of its forces, the ninth and tenth army corps. There are no longer any significant reserves here. The space is dictated by the operational intention to push through to the Sea of ​​Azov. When it comes to the information factor, it is unclear how many forces the Russians still have available to counter this. The fourth is the time factor: the Ukrainians are running out of time. Now the mud period, the Rasputiza, begins. The ground softens and becomes muddy, making it very difficult for large offensive movements. One can of course argue that the Ukrainians can remain on the offensive with their shock troop tactics. But when it gets extremely cold, their first priority is to try to survive the winter. This means they need appropriate accommodation. That’s one reason why Ukraine is trying so desperately to advance towards Tokmak. At the moment the Ukrainians are lying in open areas, in trenches between Robotyne and Werbowe or north of Melitopol and Mariupol near Velyka Novosilka. The Russians are currently in the process of destroying the Ukrainian positions with FAB glide bombs, denying them any opportunity to defend themselves.

And the next rocket winter is just around the corner.

The Russians are already beginning to conduct a second strategic air campaign against Ukraine. We have already seen a significant number of Shaheed drones, just over 500 so far – on a scale not seen in recent months. There are already increasing attacks with cruise missiles on the technical infrastructure. This suggests that this winter could be particularly harsh. Especially since the Russians repeatedly manage to eliminate Ukrainian air defenses. It was only at the weekend that the Russians verifiably destroyed a Ukrainian S-300 system. From my point of view, the signs point to a storm here.

CSU politician Manfred Weber, head of the European People’s Party, says that Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s cancellation of the Taurus deliveries “will be seen by the regime in Moscow as motivation to continue on the current path of war and destruction.” Would you agree with him?

He’s absolutely right. Russia is now saying very clearly: You can supply as many modern weapons as you want, we’ll just wait it out because we’re convinced that you don’t have the energy and the air to keep it up for a long period of time. The war in Israel is playing into their hands.

In what way?

If Israel takes massive action against Hamas now, the Israeli arsenals will come under pressure after a few days. Then Israel needs supplies from the USA – that was also the case in the last armed conflicts between Hamas and Israel. Then heavily loaded transport planes from the USA will fly to Israel and bring supplies. But the ammunition that goes to Israel cannot be sent to Ukraine. This is also a factor that may lead the Russians to believe that things are going well for them at the moment.

Hubertus Volmer spoke to Markus Reisner