Reisner’s view of the front: “We may see the first missions of Western fighter jets in secret”

Reisner’s view of the front
“We may see the first missions of Western fighter jets in secret”

February 26, 2024, 8:04 p.m

Ukraine achieves a great success by shooting down a Russian reconnaissance aircraft. According to Colonel Markus Reisner, this could be an indication of the first deployments of Western fighter jets: “We know from the past that weapon systems have repeatedly been used before the actual announcement,” said the military expert in an interview. Ukraine is also planning a surprise attack that will defeat the Russians before the elections. According to Reisner, a “spectacular attack on the Crimean Bridge” would be ideal for this.

ntv.de: Mr. Reisner, last week you said that the Russian armed forces are advancing in 17 places on the front. Did you make a breakthrough at any point?

Markus Reisner: It is currently the same situation as last summer on the Ukrainian side. Back then, the Ukrainians made inroads along the front, but no breakthroughs. We are now seeing the same thing on the Russian side. The Russians are in their second winter offensive and are attacking along five identifiable main thrust directions, in a total of 16 locations. Last week there were 17. They cause localized collapses that are between 500 meters and several kilometers deep. The situation west of Avdiivka is currently critical for the Ukrainian armed forces. They are trying to hold on to favorable terrain there, but the problem is that the Russians are putting a lot of pressure on them. The situation is similar west of Bakhmut. Nevertheless, the Russians have not yet achieved a breakthrough.

Has Ukraine’s ammunition shortage at the front become even worse?

President Zelensky pointed this out at the weekend in his speech on the anniversary of the Russian invasion. On the one hand, there is a lack of ammunition for artillery, but also for Western battle tanks, for example. This is precarious because the Ukrainians are unable to counter the Russian artillery, which can then mass up. This allows the Russian artillery to massively fire on the Ukrainian positions. This leads to constant attrition on the Ukrainian side. That’s why this ammunition issue is so crucial and the situation so tense.

How well developed are the Ukrainians’ positions in which they can defend themselves against Russian attacks?

Of course, in the last eight years before the Russian invasion, Ukraine tried very hard to expand the first line. In these positions, people dug in deeply, created extensive minefields and, in some cases, even built concrete bunkers. That’s why there’s so much fighting on this first line and why it’s taking the Russians so long to break in or break through. It is believed that there are two more correspondingly extensive Ukrainian lines of position behind it. Of course they are not as well developed as the first line of positions. Ukraine is now trying to prepare the second line in the event of a Russian breakthrough so that it can absorb the Russian thrust again.

Despite the difficult situation, Zelensky said at the weekend that there were already plans for a new counteroffensive. Is that even realistic without new Western arms deliveries?

The war is still primarily being waged in the information space. Ukraine must exude confidence on the second anniversary of the Russian invasion. President Zelensky and his advisory staff did this at the weekend, also to ensure that the morale of the troops and the population remained high and that there was no disruption in the war effort. At the same time, he made it clear that one of the causes of the long war was that support from the West was too hesitant and too little. As an example, he mentioned the failure of last year’s summer offensive. He explained that four of the brigades deployed did not have the equipment to take part in this offensive. Only around 30 percent of the promised devices were delivered by the West. He also mentioned that, in his view, the offensive was betrayed from the start. This certainly refers to the US Discord leaks, i.e. those documents that became public. In it one could actually derive in detail the structure of the Ukrainian armed forces for the offensive. Zelensky assumes that the Russians knew this before the offensive.

Let’s assume that the promised artillery ammunition and the F-16 fighter jets arrive in the next few weeks. What weapons systems would Ukraine still need to be able to effectively oppose the Russians?

The incoming artillery ammunition is necessary so that the Russian units can be repelled or kept at a distance. The incoming F-16 fighter jets are primarily used to secure the depth of Ukrainian airspace and, if possible, to use them for an offensive at certain points. But what would still be crucial is the delivery of appropriate long-range air-to-ground or surface-to-ground weapon systems. Because this could attack the Russian communication and command structures and important logistics centers at a crucial point and actually trigger an effect that can be felt across the entire Russian front. If the Russians’ ammunition depots are never hit, then there will be a constant flow of ammunition to the Russian units and thus the pressure on the Ukrainians will remain high. That’s why these weapon systems are needed.

So for example Storm Shadow, Scalp or Taurus?

Exactly. These are the weapon systems that are either already in use or are continually being requested. The F-16 fighter jets deliver a whole range of air-to-air and air-to-ground weapon systems. It is therefore important to integrate these systems well into the F-16 platform so that they can be used accordingly. That’s the big problem at the moment: not the quantity or quality of the air-to-ground weapon systems that already exist, but the number of aircraft to be able to fire them.

Last week the Ukrainians managed to shoot down an important Russian reconnaissance aircraft. What weapon was used to shoot it?

There are some notable Ukrainian successes on the anniversary, such as the reported shooting down of some fighter jets and another important A50 aircraft. The Ukrainians have said that they used an S-200 for this. This is an old Soviet system that, at least according to Ukrainian reports, has been upgraded. But I think it was more of a potent system, like a Patriot system. We may already be seeing the first secret missions of Western fighter aircraft. But this is pure speculation and there is no visible evidence for it.

So it could be that the first F-16s are already in service in Ukraine?

That could well be the case. We know from the past that weapon systems have repeatedly been deployed before they were actually announced. Because the Ukrainians naturally want to exploit their advantage for as long as possible. Only when the debris of various Western weapon systems emerged did Ukraine confirm the use of these weapon systems. In this context, a statement from Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence service, is also interesting. He has announced some surprises. I think this could mean another attack on the Kerch Bridge or something similarly spectacular. That will probably happen now in March because the elections in Russia are just around the corner. Ukraine is trying to defeat the Russians in the information space. A spectacular attack on the Crimean Bridge would be a good idea.

Zelenskyj gave information about his own losses for the first time at the weekend. According to him, 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died in the past two years. Is this number credible?

This number definitely seems to be too low. The USA also assumes a significantly higher number of around 70,000 to 90,000 dead. That’s more than double what Zelensky said. If you add the wounded, the total loss is 200,000. This total number of casualties can in principle be divided into thirds: one third killed and two thirds wounded or seriously injured. There are also 50,000 to 100,000 civilian casualties. Another indicator of a higher number of losses is the planned mobilization of around 500,000 Ukrainians, which former army chief Valeriy Zalushnyj suggested at the time. The numbers from the USA from Chief of General Staff Mark Milley have always been very precise in the past. According to him, around 300,000 soldiers were killed or wounded on the Russian side.

Vivian Micks spoke to Markus Reisner