After Putin’s statement that Russia does not want to mess with any NATO state, the alarm bells should be ringing louder than ever, because he had spoken something similar about Ukraine. But the Social Democrats indulge in pacifist wishful thinking – and punish real politicians.
When Olaf Scholz is no longer Chancellor, three things about him will be remembered: his gaps in memory, his inability to communicate and his “turning point” speech immediately after the Russian attack on Ukraine and in February 2022, with which the Social Democrat showed that he had what it took to be a great leader. After Putin’s aggression, “our benchmark is: Whatever is needed to secure peace in Europe will be done.”
This was followed by an agonizingly long period of time during which the government delayed deliveries to Ukraine amid silence from the Chancellor and all kinds of excuses. The defending country is still waiting for urgently needed Taurus cruise missiles. On the other hand, Germany is now one of the largest suppliers of military equipment to Ukraine. Scholz has been justifying his course for months as follows: “Russia must not win and Ukraine must not lose.” This is exactly what the world has been experiencing for months: a trench war like 100 years ago, in which no one wins and no one loses.
Of course, it may be that there is a strategy behind Scholz’s stance, for example that Germany does not want to hand over the few operational weapons it has in the event that Russia attacks a NATO state and the Americans after the election of a Republican say to the president: your thing! If this is the case, please ask the Chancellor to explain himself so that the guesswork can end. It is much more likely that he will shy away from Putin’s suggestions that he might use nuclear weapons. SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich gave an insight into the thoughts of the comrades. At the most recent party conference, he praised Scholz for having received “a promise” from China in Beijing that “nuclear weapons may never be used in military conflicts.”
Folklore for the pacifists
“I’m sure that saved us a lot,” said Mützenich. It sounded as if Scholz had prevented a nuclear war. The Chinese do what they want. Germany’s influence over the communists in Beijing is close to zero. In other respects, Mützenich once again showed a lack of reality. He advocated diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine – which is good and right. The SPD man explained that it was not about “negotiating with a war criminal, but rather to make it clear that we are not missing out on any opportunity to perhaps give this diplomacy a chance.”
Anyone who puts it so loosely probably doesn’t believe in what they say. This was common party conference folklore to ensnare the pacifists and Russia lovers in the SPD. There is still no reason to believe that Putin wants to negotiate. Scholz and the SPD would also have to finally make it known what Ukraine could give the Emperor in the Kremlin to make the war worth it for him. He recently claimed: “Russia has no reasons, no interest – neither geopolitical, economic nor military – in fighting with NATO states.” Putin also said that before the attack on Ukraine. And why is he setting up a “Leningrad military district” close to the Finnish border and threatening the neighboring country with “problems”?
A learning curve like the Wadden Sea
The alarm bells should be ringing by now at the latest. But so far there have been vague announcements and the hope that Joe Biden will win the presidential election in the USA so that the Americans continue to hold their protective hand over Europe. Mützenich said he had “completely underestimated” Putin. The consequence of this for him is not to finally accept that the risk of war is higher than it has been for decades and that the Federal Republic must act. Mützenich preferred to caress the comrades from the left wing and was “horrified” by “the chatter from Germany too,” by which he meant former Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, a member of the Green Party. He had called on Europe to arm itself with nuclear weapons: “As long as we have a neighbor Russia that follows Putin’s imperial ideology, we cannot do without deterring this Russia.”
However, the SPD’s learning curve is as flat as the Wadden Sea. They only need to consider the warnings from the Baltics well before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Only Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and the SPD foreign politician Michael Roth have recognized the signs of the times, and probably Scholz too, but he is once again silent. Pistorius and Roth are in unison calling on Germany to prepare for a defensive war. They are guided by the bitter realization that dictators who start wars can only be stopped by force of arms. “Creating peace without weapons” remains a beautiful but unrealistic dream.
Roth was punished for his attitude and failed in the SPD board election. Worse than the defeat was the scornful laughter when the result was announced. A victory for the SPD left around Mützenich, who reject the idea of making Germany “war-ready” as represented by Pistorius and Roth. The extent to which the Social Democrats are distancing themselves from the “turning point” postulated by their Chancellor is also shown by the fact that it only took one day for SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert to accept the Defense Minister’s suggestion of compulsory military service based on the Swedish model. There are good arguments against reintroducing compulsory military service. But simply dismissing Pistorius’ approach as not capable of gaining a majority in the SPD speaks volumes, as did the entire party conference of staged unity: Peace, joy, SPD.
I hope Putin didn’t lie
One can only come to the conclusion that the SPD is not taking the “turning point” seriously enough. The Federal Republic of Germany, with its poorly positioned army and navy, is far from capable of war and ready to defend itself. The upgrade is progressing very slowly. Kühnert and other leading Social Democrats always assert that they will adhere to NATO’s goal of putting two percent of Germany’s economic output into the military budget. But this will not be achieved until 2024 at the earliest and only through the integration of the special fund for the Bundeswehr.
The sad result of this policy is now visible again. As an export nation, Germany is dependent on global trade. According to calculations by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), almost ten percent of our foreign trade is shipped via the Suez Canal, which flows into the Red Sea and connects Europe and Asia. Germany plans to participate in or support the US-led military alliance to secure shipping in the crisis region against attacks by Houthi rebels. Only when and how is unclear. If the Bundestag agrees, the German Navy must first find a ship suitable for war that can be sent. Great Britain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Bahrain and the Seychelles want to help the Americans. That means: A tiny island state is involved, while Germany, as “government circles” said, still has to clarify “practical and legal questions”. If this is the turning point, then let’s hope that Putin hasn’t lied again with his statement that he would leave the NATO countries alone.