Renovation effect overestimated?
Internal document casts doubt on the railway’s punctuality goal
January 20, 2024, 10:24 a.m
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Deutsche Bahn has been a major problem child for years, but now wants to improve sustainably by renovating the rail network. However, this should not have as much of an impact on punctuality as they claim. A confidential presentation suggests this.
In the foreseeable future, the planned general renovation of the railway will not have the effect that Railway and Transport Minister Volker Wissing promised. This is suggested by a confidential presentation from the group, which is dated October 18, 2023 and is entitled “Customer & Quality”. The document is available to “Spiegel”. The core of the document are several diagrams on punctuality in long-distance, freight and regional transport.
According to a joint strategy between the railways and the Ministry of Transport, 80 percent of long-distance trains should be on time by 2030, for example ICE and intercity trains. According to the internal documentation, punctuality should be 71.5 percent in 2024 and 74.5 percent in 2028. No values are given in the diagram for 2030. Accordingly, the railway would have to close a gap of five and a half percentage points by 2030.
In view of the planned complete closure of important routes, this gap is notable because the railway admits in the same document that the general renovation will improve punctuality by just 1.8 percentage points. According to the document, this effect is so small that it will be canceled out in 2028 by the additional traffic (-2.3 percentage points), the construction sites (-0.7) and the still outdated facilities (-0.4). In addition, the railway is already behind its forecasts. According to our own figures, punctuality in 2023 was not 67 percent as predicted, but only 64 percent. “Spiegel” reports that punctuality in long-distance transport was just 52.4 percent on January 8, 2024. There was a lack of both ICE and personnel.
The railway wants to close important routes from summer 2024. Work will begin on the so-called Riedbahn between Frankfurt and Mannheim, where a three-week test closure is already underway. Then follows the route between Berlin and Hamburg. 750 kilometers of the route network are to be renovated by 2030. When asked by “Spiegel”, the railways and the Ministry of Transport did not want to comment on the internal document. Both pointed out that punctuality in long-distance transport will be 80 percent after the general renovations are completed in 2030.