Anyone who is not with us is against us. This is the message that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been spreading since the beginning of the war of aggression against Ukraine. In the face of these threats, there are not many who still dare to express themselves critical of the Kremlin. One of them is Andrei Kolesnikov, a researcher at the Carnegie Center in Moscow, a think tank that studies Russian domestic and foreign policy.
The climate these days in Russia is terrible, said Kolesnikov. You have to expect every second that your personal freedoms will be taken away – completely without reason. The police and all the other security agencies are unleashed, and they don’t know what else they can say without breaking the law.
Although martial law does not currently apply in the country, it at least feels like it, says Andrei Kolesnikov, describing life in Moscow. When President Putin speaks of traitors and a need for self-cleansing, that calls into action those who want to take the law into their own hands.
Repression can also be seen on a small scale
A well-known journalist recently had to experience how that feels. Until three weeks ago, Alexei Venediktov was editor-in-chief of the well-known, Kremlin-critical radio station “Echo Moscow”. Until the station was banned by the Kremlin and finally fell silent after more than 30 years.
And now this deserving journalist has received a visit from strangers: someone has deposited a pig’s head in front of the journalist’s apartment door. A Ukrainian coat of arms with an anti-Semitic insult was taped to the door. They could have been “siloviki”, i.e. representatives of the security apparatus, but just as well disgruntled pseudo-patriots, according to the political scientist.
That may be an extreme case. But the repression is also evident on a small scale, in normal everyday life. When a policeman takes a smartphone in the subway station to look through it. Although this is a clear violation of the constitution, it still happens.
polarization of both camps
Kolesnikov avoids the word war in connection with Ukraine. And yet it falls in the course of the conversation, albeit in a different context. Kolesnikov uses the term to describe the toxic atmosphere inside Russia, where two camps are irreconcilably opposed. Here those loyal to the Kremlin, there those who think differently.
One can observe a kind of civil war of opinions at the moment.
The biggest problem is the polarization. Both camps have become radicalized in recent days. Those who support Putin’s operation, but also those who are against it. What you can observe right now is a kind of “civil war of opinions”. The political scientist does not perceive a mood of protest on the part of the war opponents. It’s too risky to take to the streets because you’re risking your job. And finding a new job is practically impossible – given the economic problems. These have recently intensified as a result of the sanctions imposed by the West.
High inflation is already noticeable, but the worst is yet to come. Nevertheless, Putin is more popular today than a few months ago. His supporters would now even more support him.
“Sanctions will not stop Putin”
And the problem: The sanctions also affect democratic, western-minded Russians. “We are also victims of Putin,” says Kolesnikov. That’s what the West doesn’t really understand when it wants to punish Putin with sanctions. The sanctions are completely indifferent to him and will not stop him from fighting to the last.
Instead of sanctions, the West should focus on education. Opening the door for young Russians to study in the West. Only if the West helps nurture a new generation of Russians who are friendlier to the West will a different Russia be possible, maybe 20 years from now. Tens of thousands have already lost faith in a democratic Russia – they have fled abroad since the outbreak of war. Also, many acquaintances of Andrei Kolesnikov.
He himself wants to stay in Moscow for the time being in order to get involved locally for a more democratic Russia – as impossible as that may seem under the given circumstances. He continues to write and comment, which he has done all his life. To stop now of all times seems senseless to him. He hopes he won’t be persecuted for it. Even if that’s just a hope.