You rightly point out that Joe Biden and Donald Trump seem to be moving forward, without incident, towards a new duel. The polls are crumbling under their weight. It is a real industry, generating very significant income. In recent days, several polls have painted a worrying picture for Joe Biden, giving Trump about two points ahead.
But I urge extreme caution in their assessment. First, other studies show that Joe Biden would be slightly ahead. Then, the credibility of the polls varies. Some lack rigor in the sample selected and the questions asked. Others, particularly in the conservative camp, look like pure political commands, with contrived results. But, above all, it is too early! We are eight months away from the presidential election. Americans have not yet entered this political cycle. They have even less appetite since a vast and indisputable majority does not want a new Biden/Trump duel! We are going to witness a long, handicap race.
Another reason to be cautious about polls is recent experience. We were told of a red wave sweeping over Congress, during the mid-term elections, in November 2022. The wave was a wave in the House of Representatives, where the Republicans managed to regain a narrow majority. But in the Senate, the Democrats have consolidated their domination.
The Biden camp’s entire calculation is based on this experience. What were the two major drivers of democratic mobilization during this 2022 electoral event? Democracy in danger, with MAGA candidates [Make America Great Again] extremists invested in certain States; but above all, the decision of the Supreme Court, in June 2022, to remove abortion as a right for all American women, sending the question back to the States. Since then, in every local election or referendum, the Republicans have been crushed on abortion, which provokes a vast mobilization among women and young people, two groups that Joe Biden will greatly need in November. In conclusion, be wary at this stage! Above all, we must monitor the dynamics, more than the figures, and the strategies followed.