Republicans ahead in House of Representatives, Senate fate uncertain

The results of the elections could take days to be known in their entirety. Here’s why :

Postal voting has become widespread since the 2020 presidential election, organized in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. This year, approximately 25 million bulletins were sent by correspondence. However, these ballots take longer to count than a vote taken in person. To certify these ballots – sent by post or deposited in large metal boxes intended for this purpose – it is necessary to open the envelopes, check the signatures and arrange them in a pile before counting them. The rules determining when this preparation can begin vary by state. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example, it cannot take place before Election Day.

Also, some ballots may arrive several days after the election date and still be accepted in many states. This is also the case for the bulletins of soldiers in service abroad. In the case of close elections, these votes can tip the scales. The result cannot therefore be announced with certainty before these votes are also counted.

The results can also be so close that they require a recount of the ballots. In total, around twenty states have laws automatically ordering a recount if the margin between two candidates is too small. This is often set at 0.5%as in Arizona for example.

In addition, a by-election may be required in Georgia, where Republican Herschel Walker faces Democrat Raphael Warnock. If no candidate obtains more than 50% of the votes, a by-election will have to be organized at the beginning of December. This scenario is made possible by the candidacy of a third man, the libertarian Chase Oliver. In 2020, Americans had to wait weeks to find out which party won the majority in the Senate, precisely because of a Georgia by-election.

The very tense political context is also reflected in the multiple legal actions already initiated, contesting technical aspects of the local voting process. These procedures could postpone the certification of the results in the event of long legal battles. The Republicans, for example, tried to invalidate certain early votes – generally more favorable to the Democrats – in Pennsylvania. The state Supreme Court agreed with them and ruled that incorrectly or undated advance ballots could not be counted, even if they had arrived on time. Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman has filed an appeal in federal court. Thousands of voices are at stake.