Dince the beginning of June, the major maneuvers with a view to a possible reshuffle have intensified, with the aim of settling the battle for pensions. The leaders of the majority water Emmanuel Macron in notes and offer turnkey castings, the secretary general of the Elysee Alexis Kohler for his part probes the main ministers on their intentions. From a strictly calendar point of view, several options are available to the Head of State: modify his executive by the end of his “100-day” period, i.e. before July 14, wait until the results of the senatorial elections, at the end of September, or else turn everything upside down after the budgetary period, in the winter, or even wait for the end of the Olympic Games, at the start of the 2024 school year.
READ ALSO“Your government is a disaster”: Macron towards a forced reshuffle? However, within his close guard, more and more of them are alerting him to the dangers and the slow poison of an executive that is too weak, demonetized, which would ruin his five-year term. “We must gain in efficiency, in political coherence, in political support”, pleads a feathered leader of the majority. “The whole system is out of breath”, describes a figure from the Palais-Bourbon more bluntly, when another compares the executive to a “cinema set”. The president observes each other fidgeting, taking care above all not to reveal his game. No question of being parasitized by rumors of a reshuffle. “He is focused on his sequence on reindustrialization, on the international with the summit on global finance organized in Paris at the end of June, his visit to Germany at the beginning of July, recites an intimate. He wants first to redo the icing before taking care of his government. All these negotiations, he has nothing to do with them…” Who pushes what? What are the different scenarios, their advantages, their drawbacks? While waiting for the Elysian arbitration, detailed review of the three options between which Emmanuel Macron must choose.
READ ALSOLarcher, Baroin, Copé… Who wants to win Matignon?
Appoint a right-wing Prime Minister for a coalition with LR
This is the plan defended for a long time by ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy: consolidate a majority in the Assembly with Les Républicains deputies by appointing a right-wing figure to Matignon and thus formalize a government agreement with the party of ‘Éric Ciotti, which would allow, from the outset, to pass a law on immigration. When Emmanuel Macron was re-elected, it was the president of Greater Reims, Catherine Vautrin, a Sarkozyist, who was expected to become Prime Minister, before the head of state preferred Elisabeth at the last minute. Thick headed. In recent times, the former president would also be particularly active, receiving in his office in the rue de Miromesnil all that the right and the macronie have influential personalities. The Express even revealed on Monday that Nicolas Sarkozy had spoken with Emmanuel Macron on June 6, at the Élysée. “Nicolas Sarkozy considers that if there is no agreement with LR, LR will end up imposing it on us. It anticipates in the long term a motion of censure of the group ”, confides a strategist. “LR makes us dance and complicates the redesign equation. We have the gun to our head because it can end in forced cohabitation, ”explains Loïc Signor, spokesperson for Renaissance.
There are fewer differences between Renaissance and the LRs than between Lionel Jospin and Jacques Chirac or Édouard Balladur and François Mitterrand.A Renaissance MP
Even if the scenario of a coalition marks the end of the “at the same time” and the overcoming of divisions dear to the president, it is clear that it is increasingly attractive within the majority itself, where the idea of he government with, for example, Gérard Larcher at Matignon and Éric Ciotti at Beauvau, in the name of pragmatism, is no longer frightening. “We must regain control, buy clarity and stability for the next four years and prepare for the future to avoid the National Rally in power in 2027. If the price to pay is a Prime Minister LR , then that’s what you have to do. There are fewer differences between Renaissance and the LRs than between Lionel Jospin and Jacques Chirac or Édouard Balladur and François Mitterrand ”, confided to us an elected official of the majority, a historical macronist and yet not really classified on the right, in recent days. Problem: part of the left wing of Renaissance and the MoDem would prevent it, on the pretext that it would amount to cohabitation and “spinning the keys to the truck” to a political party that weighs less than 5% in the presidential election . And then who imagines Aurore Bergé, leader of the Renaissance deputies, presenting Gérard Larcher as the new Prime Minister in a group meeting? To attempt a more minimalist rapprochement with the right or to send “signs of openness”, the hypothesis of a promotion of the Minister of the Armed Forces at Matignon, Sébastien Lecornu, cannot be excluded. Same thing for Gérald Darmanin, even if the boss of Beauvau has the disadvantage of wanting to be President of the Republic and of suffering from a bad image.
Playing it safe and promoting a faithful to Matignon
If he renounces the great upheaval and the alliance with the right, Emmanuel Macron may want to breathe new life into his government by appointing a personality from his ranks whom he appreciates. In the entourage of Édouard Philippe, it is said that in the summer of 2020, it was more the need to work with a new person who presided over the promotion of Jean Castex to Matignon than any change in political orientation. . This is why several majority heavyweights, including François Bayrou, would push for the Richard Ferrand rue de Varenne option. The former President of the Assembly, defeated in the legislative elections in June, has shown his political “know-how” during the last five years, argues a voice from the MoDem. “Richard is strong, he is not afraid of opposition or confrontation,” boasts a relative of the former elected representative from Finistère. Despite a past in the Socialist Party, Richard Ferrand would have the advantage of being respected by Éric Ciotti as well as Jean-Luc Mélenchon. From the time he occupied the perch, he also exchanged regularly with Marine Le Pen. However, points out a parliamentarian who knows him well, the grumbler who has since left in the private sector would rather like to return at the end of the five-year term. “I turned on the light, I’ll turn it off!” he used to say. Despite his defeat in June, Richard Ferrand has never stopped talking with the president. His relations with Alexis Kohler, the right arm of the head of state, are on the other hand more complex. “Richard, I like him, but he doesn’t work”, would have judged the secretary general.
READ ALSORichard Ferrand, the revenge of the macronie grognardAnother personality often quoted, the former Minister of Agriculture Julien Denormandie, historic walker. The forties, considered the “darling” of Emmanuel Macron, enjoys strong popularity within the majority. “The president finds it disruptive,” notes a former adviser. “It would be consistent with the idea that it is the head of state who takes over the files. Julien is a very good performer, and he also has very good human contact, ”praises a minister, surely anxious not to alienate a potential future team leader. A card which however seems undersized with regard to the political situation. The relative majority constrains the executive to permanent instability. If the appointment of a faithful brings a certain comfort to the president and to the Élysée – Élisabeth Borne not being part of the first circle of Emmanuel Macron – this kind of profile risks being unbolted at any time by a motion of censure in the Assembly. The heavyweights of the government, from the right, are not in favor of it.
Temporize and preserve Élisabeth Borne
In the absence of an obvious solution to replace her, the ex-prefect Elisabeth Borne could be reinforced for a few more months in her post, despite deteriorated relations with the president since the pension reform. This Monday, she escaped a 17e motion of censure, more offensive and hard-hitting in his speech than usual. Partisan of the method of the majority “text by text” in the Assembly, the polytechnic seeks to show that it is more political than one thinks and that with it, the files advance. She enjoys support in the government and in the majority of those who fear the appointment of a right-wing figure. “She created a bond with the deputies, a relationship of respect. She’s loyal and legit, holds the majority. There is no reason to move it before the budget “, either in the fall, pleads an influential voice from the Renaissance group. “The president has every interest in using it to the end”, argues a shadow adviser.
Borne is like elevator music, you can’t hear it.
Elisabeth Borne also wants to show that her departure is by no means on the agenda, projecting herself beyond the “100 days” of Emmanuel Macron. During a meeting of government chiefs of staff held on rue de Varenne at the end of May, a short sentence from an adviser to the Prime Minister did not go unnoticed: “J validated the Matignon children’s Christmas program. ” “It is projected until December, say so! “We had fun in the government. Problem, it is considered weakened, “burnt” since the 49.3 repeatedly, and is criticized for a lack of coordination and animation of the government. “And then Borne, it’s like elevator music, we don’t hear it”, scratches a communicator from power.
His maintenance at Matignon would however imply a renewal within the ministries. Around the president and within the majority, the same list of “weak links” in the government is almost unanimously cited, who should either be dismissed or moved: Pap Ndiaye (Education), François Braun (Health), Christophe Béchu (Ecology), Marlène Schiappa (Social and Solidarity Economy), Olivier Klein (Housing), not to mention the unknown Secretaries of State.
This cast change at least carries the risk of keeping the president in a form of status quo and failing to provide it with the necessary political impetus to trigger a new dynamic. The budgetary period and its share of 49.3 which is announced in the fall also makes the Élysée fear that a motion of censure will end up definitively sanctioning Élisabeth Borne. “We then expose ourselves to a crisis of regime. Because, in the end, the oppositions will demand the resignation of Emmanuel Macron”, fears an observer. Conclusion: “The president has all the cards in hand, but his game is rotten. » READ ALSOOne year of Elisabeth Borne at Matignon: the Stations of the Cross