Ipension reform cancelled? If Emmanuel Macron and Élisabeth Borne have turned the page on the “retirement” episode, even regaining a few points of popularity, the opposition, the unions and the street have still not given up the fight. The subject is back at the center of political concerns this week with the examination of the Liot group’s bill which aims to repeal the retirement age at 64.
The text will be studied on Wednesday May 31 in committee, then on June 8 in the hemicycle. But what are the stakes of this new political sequence that is opening up?
Who is at the front?
The independent group Liot (Liberties, Independents, Overseas Territories and Territories) and its 21 deputies tabled this repeal bill, which is on the agenda of the Assembly on 8 June, a day dedicated to texts of the group (“niche”). Its boss, Bertrand Pancher, intends to offer a “top exit” to the “very serious social and political crisis” generated by the pension reform.
READ ALSOPensions: Liot will in turn seize the Constitutional CouncilThe Liot proposal has the support of the left, the RN and some LRs. On June 8, it has a chance of being adopted at first reading, given the simple relative majority available to the presidential camp. Hence the commotion of battle in macronie against a text accused of “irresponsible”, “unconstitutional” and without future.
“It is not serious to want to have a catch-up session by pretending that we could carry out a pension reform in a few hours”, repeated Elisabeth Borne on Sunday.
What does the repeal text contain?
His item 1er plans to return to retirement at 62 by erasing the planned timetable for raising the legal retirement age from 1er September (three months per year until 2030). The calendar for extending the contribution period would also be revised.
Article 2 proposes a “retirement system financing conference” before December 31, bringing together the State, social partners, citizens and qualified personalities. It would be a question of finding other solutions in order to guarantee the balance of the regimes.
Finally, the usual trick of parliamentarians to ensure the admissibility of their proposals: a final article programs an increase in tobacco tax to compensate for the loss of revenue for Social Security, because of this text of law. But “this pledge on the packet of cigarettes does not hold”, sweeps a government source.
What is financial inadmissibility?
The presidential camp has been brandishing article 40 of the Constitution for several weeks, which provides that the initiatives of parliamentarians are not admissible if they aggravate public charges. However, the Liot text has already passed a first filter by being deemed admissible at the time of its filing by a delegation from the office of the Assembly, traditionally quite flexible.
In view of the debates on Wednesday in the Social Affairs Committee, its president, Fadila Khattabi (Renaissance), posed the question of admissibility to her counterpart in Finance, the LFI Éric Coquerel. The latter will give his answer by Tuesday evening, which will be a confirmation: he refuses to undermine the “right of the opposition”, also at constitutional level. But article 40 can be mobilized at any time, and the macronists have not said their last word.
What can happen on Wednesday in committee and beyond?
More than 80 amendments have been tabled by deputies from all sides for the meeting at 9:30 am. Including amendments from the presidential majority to delete article 1er, which are likely to be approved thanks to a favorable balance of power in committee. The bill thus emptied of its substance would be validated.
In view of the session of June 8, the oppositions should naturally try to restore this key article repealing the 64 years, via new amendments. The macronists have their plan all tied up: these amendments would be declared inadmissible by the President of the Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, who will then have the hand. Thus, on June 8, there would be no possibility of voting for repeal.
What other scenarios?
“It’s going to be hot,” we predict in all ranks. The presidential majority does not have the guarantee that everything will go as it wishes, and a day of mobilization of the inter-union on June 6 will put the pressure.
After 49.3, 44.3? Among the other tricks up its sleeve, the executive will be able to play the card of another article of the Constitution, 44.3, allowing the “blocked vote” in session: it would consist of putting the Liot text to the vote without its article 1er – take it or leave it text.
Moreover, government as majority will be able to use the obstruction to prevent the debates from going to their end. With the aim of holding out until midnight, the ax time in the hemicycle… but at the risk of again pointing at the 64-year-old protesters.
Even in the event of final adoption at the end of a parliamentary course with pitfalls, the Liot text “would ultimately be canceled by the Constitutional Council”, does not budge Élisabeth Borne. Bertrand Pancher would not fail to him also, with other oppositions, to seize the Sages.