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The Kazakh president claims that his country is threatened from outside. Moscow is therefore sending peacekeeping troops.
You know that about the current situation: Further unrest is reported from the largest city in the country, Almaty, and there is said to have been a shooting. Apparently larger units of the military and security forces have advanced. But there are also demonstrators who are armed. The situation seems to have gotten out of hand at least in Almaty during the night. There are reports of looting. The authorities also reported several soldiers killed. There is also violence on the part of the protesters. The situation remains unclear and confusing.
This is how it will continue in the next few days: In response to the violent protests, a Russian-led military alliance has now pledged aid to Kazakhstan. The chairman of the alliance, the Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan, said they wanted to send temporary peacekeeping troops. The alliance is responding to a call for help from Kazakh President Kassym-Shomart Tokayev. In order to fight internal unrest, the authoritarian regime in Kazakhstan relies on outside help.
Legend:
The president declared a state of emergency on Wednesday after the city hall of Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, was stormed.
Keystone
This is how the sending of troops is justified: The Kazakh President asked for help because the country was being threatened from outside, i.e. by foreign forces, explains former SRF Russia correspondent David Nauer. “And that’s why the military alliance headed by Moscow now wants to provide fraternal military aid, as it were.” We are talking about so-called peace soldiers who, according to the official version, are to be deployed for a limited time.
That is to be kept from this reasoning: According to Nauer, the assertion that Kazakhstan is threatened from outside is “constructed, and indeed completely”. Kazakhstan is not threatened from outside. “What we are dealing with here is an authoritarian regime that has got into a serious domestic political crisis.” The Kazakh government and the president have lost legitimacy in the eyes of many citizens.
This is what sparked the protests: Above all, people are unhappy about the poor economic situation and have protested because of it. Some security forces have also joined these protests. “President Tokayev no longer seems to have at least part of the state apparatus under control, and that’s why he turned to Moscow,” said Nauer. «And the Russians are now supposed to save the Kazakh authoritarian regime. And it looks like they still enjoy doing it. “
This means the invasion with the alliance: The fact that Russia is now invading a former Soviet state with an alliance is also a strong external sign. “In geopolitical terms, that’s a huge win for the Russians, if you will, a jackpot,” explains Nauer. “If this military action succeeds, then the Kremlin can bind Kazakhstan very closely. The Kazakh regime then owes its survival to Moscow. Of course that obliges. ”
Now Russia is practically bringing the country back into its orbit – if things go well. A military action can also go wrong.
It could lead to a major shift in the balance of power in Central Asia. Kazakhstan has always been relatively independent over the past few decades. In terms of foreign policy, it had good relations with Russia and China, but also with the West. «Now Russia is practically bringing the country back into its orbit – if the thing works. A military action can also go wrong. “