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ROME, March 11 (Reuters) – Global food prices could rise by between 8% and 20% in the wake of war in Ukraine, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimated on Friday. ), which warns of a foreseeable increase in malnutrition on a global scale.
Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter and Ukraine the fifth. Together, the two countries supply more than a third of world cereal exports (19% for barley, 14% for wheat and 4% for corn).
“The likely disruptions to the agricultural activities of these two major commodity exporters could seriously aggravate food insecurity globally,” FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu said in a statement.
The UN agency’s food price index, which reflects the evolution of the prices of the main foodstuffs traded in the world, already reached a record level in February.
Its surge is likely to continue in the months to come, when the repercussions of the conflict will spread throughout the world, warns the FAO.
In its preliminary assessment of the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the FAO highlights the uncertainties surrounding crops in Ukraine but also Russian agricultural exports, not to mention that Russia is also a major exporter of agricultural products. fertilizers.
In detail, between 20% and 30% of winter grain, maize and sunflower fields will not be planted or harvested in Ukraine during the 2022-23 season, while Russian exports are expected to be disrupted by international sanctions. .
According to the FAO, 50 countries, many of which are among the poorest in the world, depend on Russia and Ukraine for at most 30% of their wheat supply and will therefore be particularly vulnerable to the crisis. In progress.
“Eight to thirteen million additional people could suffer from undernutrition worldwide in 2022/23”, warns the FAO, specifying that the progression of malnutrition will be particularly marked in the regions of Asia-Pacific and Africa. sub-Saharan.
(Report Crispian Balmer, French version Myriam Rivet, edited by Sophie Louet)