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Every autumn, economists revise their summer forecasts of economic growth. This time they are all revising their figures downwards, as the economic situation has deteriorated in recent months. A major reason is the concern that energy could become scarce at home and abroad in the winter. In addition, the central banks are fighting inflation by raising interest rates, but this is also slowing down growth.
A look at the revised forecasts made by experts all over the country shows that they are surprisingly in agreement. Their estimates for 2022 and 2023 are within a narrow range. For this year, the majority expect growth in gross domestic product of around 2.3 percent, for next year it is still just under one percent.
Two crucial unknowns
This conveys an image of reliability and planning security. But this apparent accuracy is deceptive. The risks that things could turn out very differently are currently enormous. There are two crucial unknowns in the room: inflation and the energy supply.
Inflation is still painfully high in many major economic areas such as the eurozone, the UK and the US. The central banks do not yet have them under control.
And the energy supply is not secured next winter. Numerous efforts are already being made at home and abroad to save energy, increase reserves and tap into new sources. But whether that will be enough remains to be seen.
Not immune to risks abroad
In terms of inflation, Switzerland is in a much better position than the surrounding countries. And the dependency on Russian gas is also lower than outside the border. And yet Switzerland cannot completely escape economic problems abroad: our well-being depends too much on exports – and thus also on the well-being of our customer countries.
Surprisingly, economic experts are currently in agreement on GDP growth. But the fine print on the numbers, which suggests things could turn out differently—worse—is at least as important as the bare numbers.