RTL/ntv trend barometer
AfD at its highest level to date
September 19, 2023, 12:00 p.m
Two parties gained one point in the trend barometer this week: the Greens and the AfD. The latter thus achieved the highest value determined for it in this survey. In January, the right-wing populists were ten points worse off.
The AfD and the Greens each gained one percentage point in the trend barometer from RTL and ntv, while the FDP and other parties lost one point each compared to the previous week. This means that the AfD is at its highest nationwide value ever measured by Forsa.
If the Bundestag were to be elected this week, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 27 percent (federal election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), AfD 22 percent (10.3 percent), SPD 17 percent (25.7 percent). percent), Greens 14 percent (14.8 percent), FDP 6 percent (11.5 percent), Left 4 percent (4.9 percent). 10 percent of voters would choose other parties (8.7 percent).
At 27 percent, the proportion of non-voters and undecided people is still higher than the proportion of non-voters in the last federal election (23.4 percent).
In the current topic radar, the federal government – and thus the internal dispute in the traffic light coalition – is in first place with 37 percent. The second most important issue for Germans is energy and energy prices (33 percent), followed by the war in Ukraine in third place (28 percent). The other places are occupied by natural disasters (27 percent), climate/environment (14 percent), immigration/foreigners (9) and the state elections in Bavaria and Hesse (7 percent).
The values for chancellor preference do not change when the question is asked about a constellation in which incumbent Olaf Scholz from the SPD runs against CDU leader Friedrich Merz and the green Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck. In this scenario, 21 percent would choose Scholz, 19 percent for Merz and 16 percent for Habeck. (In fact, the Chancellor is not elected directly, but by the Bundestag.)
If it were not Habeck who stood for the Greens, but Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, then Merz would lose one percentage point compared to the previous week. Then Scholz would come to 23 percent, Merz to 21 percent and Baerbock to 17 percent.
Furthermore, when it comes to Chancellor preference, around four out of ten eligible voters would not choose any of the three possible candidates.
When asked who could best deal with the problems in Germany, 13 percent named the Union and 9 percent named the SPD. 9 percent trust the Greens to solve the problems in Germany, an increase of one point. The FDP accounts for 2 percent (minus one) and the AfD 9 percent (plus two). 57 percent do not believe that any of the parties have political competence (minus one).
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between September 12th and 18th. Database: 2504 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.