RTL/ntv trend barometer
AfD gives point, FDP and Greens also lose
07/25/2023, 2:00 p.m
The AfD has been going up in the polls since the beginning of the year. In the latest RTL/ntv trend barometer, the party slips for the first time. With the exception of the SPD, the other parties are also moving. The general mood deteriorated.
The rise of the AfD in the RTL/ntv trend barometer, which has been uninterrupted for months, has come to a standstill for the first time since the beginning of the year. When asked about the voters’ favour, the party gives way slightly and falls by one point to 19 percent. The other opposition parties in the Bundestag win on the other hand: the Union increases by one point to 27 percent. The left jumps from 4 to 5 percent. On the other hand, the traffic light coalition must continue to lose feathers. While the SPD holds its 18 percent figure, the Greens land at 14 percent and the FDP at 6 percent, each down a point. All movements are within the statistical error tolerance of +/-2.5 percent.
The camp of respondents who want to vote for a small party has also increased: from 10 to 11 percent. The proportion of non-voters and undecided also increases to 28 percent. In the last federal election, 23.4 percent of those entitled to vote did not vote. The proportion of respondents who expect the economic situation in Germany to deteriorate has jumped by three points to 66 percent. The camps of respondents who expect an improvement (11 percent) or no change at all (19 percent) each have two percentage points less.
The most important topics for those surveyed were the war in Ukraine (48 percent), energy and energy prices (34 percent), the federal government (18 percent), climate and the environment (17 percent) and immigration (7 percent).
Little hope for better EU asylum policy
There is less movement when it comes to the question of Chancellor preference. However, the values were also collected before the controversial summer interview by CDU leader Friedrich Merz and the subsequent criticism of his AfD statements. In a direct comparison, Chancellor Olaf Scholz stagnates at 23 percent and Merz at 20 percent. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck from the Greens falls from 17 to 16 percent. If Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock were running instead of Habeck, she would get 17 percent – also one point less than in the previous week. Merz would get one point more with 23 percent approval. In this constellation of candidates, Scholz remains unchanged at 25 percent.
When asked who people trust most to deal with Germany’s problems, there is no change for the CDU/CSU (12 percent), SPD (10 percent), Greens (8 percent) and FDP (3 percent). The AfD increases by one point, to 9 percent.
In addition, Forsa asked people whether they believe that the distribution of asylum seekers and refugees within Europe will work better in the future than it has in the past. 77 percent answered this with “no”, 19 percent with “yes”. At 24 percent, optimism is greatest among the supporters of the Greens, although the Federal Government’s approval of the EU’s asylum compromise led to serious upheavals in Bündnis 90/Die Grünen of all places. AfD supporters are by far the least confident. Only 5 percent believe in an improvement, 92 percent do not.
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany between July 18th and 24th. Database: 2504 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. For the question about the development of the EU asylum policy, Forsa interviewed 1002 people between July 21 and 24. Statistical error tolerance: plus/minus 3 percentage points.