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RTL/ntv trend barometer: SPD and Scholz lose, Union ahead again

RTL/ntv trend barometer
SPD and Scholz lose, Union back in front

Both the SPD and Chancellor Scholz each give one point in the trend barometer. On the question of chancellor, the incumbent remains well ahead of CDU leader Merz, but the Union is stronger than the SPD again this week.

After its high in early April, the SPD again loses slightly in the RTL and ntv trend barometer. Compared to the previous week, the Social Democrats fall back by one percentage point. The FDP increases by one point, all other parties remain unchanged. The SPD is no longer on par with the Union, but one point behind it.

If there were a federal election now, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 25 percent (2021 federal election: 24.1 percent), SPD 24 percent (25.7 percent), Greens 20 percent (14.8 percent), FDP 9 percent (11.5 percent), AfD 9 percent (10.3 percent), Left 4 percent (4.9 percent). 9 percent of voters (8.7 percent) would choose other parties. The proportion of non-voters and undecided is 25 percent and thus higher than the proportion of non-voters in the federal election (23.4 percent).

Like his party, incumbent Olaf Scholz loses one point in the chancellor preference and currently comes to 42 percent. For CDU leader Friedrich Merz, 18 percent would still decide if the chancellor were elected directly by those entitled to vote instead of by the Bundestag.

83 percent of SPD supporters would choose Scholz, while only 48 percent of CDU/CSU supporters would choose Merz. 15 percent (- 3 percentage points) trust the SPD to be the best at dealing with the problems in Germany. 14 percent (+1 percentage point) of all eligible voters trust the Greens, 7 percent the CDU/CSU, 3 percent the FDP and 4 percent the other parties with political competence. 57 percent do not trust any party to solve the problems in Germany.

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