RTL/ntv trend barometer
SPD falls to Green level, majority wants Groko instead of traffic lights
November 14, 2023, 2:02 p.m
The new RTL/ntv trend barometer contains above all good news for the Union. It achieves almost as much approval as the governing parties combined and CDU chairman Merz increases his lead over Chancellor Scholz. In addition, support for a change of government is growing significantly.
The traffic light coalition once again lost one point in the new RTL/ntv trend barometer and together is just 32 percent – just ahead of the Union, which alone is again at 30 percent. That is one percentage point more than the previous week in the survey conducted by Forsa. A majority of 55 percent are now of the opinion that a grand coalition made up of the SPD, CDU and CSU would be better for the country than the incumbent government alliance.
The SPD falls in the trend barometer by one point to 14 percent (2021 federal election: 25.7 percent). The Greens are stagnating at 14 percent (14.8 percent) and the FDP at 5 percent (11.5 percent). The CDU and CSU increased by one percentage point to 30 percent (24.1 percent). As in previous weeks, the AfD achieved 21 percent (10.3 percent). The Left, which is dissolving its parliamentary group because of the resignations of Sahra-Wagenkecht supporters, is still at 4 percent (4.3). The Free Voters remain at 3 percent (2.4 percent). As in the previous week, 9 percent of those surveyed would vote for other parties (6.7 percent).
While 47 percent of those surveyed three weeks ago were of the opinion that a grand coalition would govern the country better than the traffic lights, the figure has now risen to 55 percent. Even among SPD supporters, 54 percent are of this opinion, and among those of the FDP even 72 percent. Only 14 percent of Green Party supporters share this opinion. 85 percent of Union voters would prefer to see a Groko at work, while 58 percent of AfD supporters would prefer to see it.
69 percent of those surveyed attribute the AfD’s ongoing poll high to general dissatisfaction with the federal government. In contrast, 25 percent agree with the statement that the AfD has gained new supporters because the number of refugees in Germany is so high. 29 percent of supporters of the FDP and SPD cite immigration figures as the cause, while among Union supporters the figure is even 30 percent. 22 percent of AfD supporters hold this view, while only 16 percent of those of the Green Party hold this view.
If the Chancellor were elected directly, Friedrich Merz would be clearly ahead of Olaf Scholz: He gained one point to 22 percent, Scholz fell by one point to 19 percent. Robert Habeck wins one point to 18 percent. If Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock were to run for the Greens instead of Habeck, she would get 16 percent, as in the previous week. In this scenario, Merz gains one point and reaches 25 percent. Scholz gave up one point at 22 percent.
With 15 percent, the Union remains the strongest force when it comes to the question of greatest political competence. The AfD gained one point on this issue and reached 9 percent. The SPD falls by one point to 7 percent. The Greens remain at 7 percent, the FDP at 2 percent. The camp of those who don’t trust any party to solve Germany’s problems grew by one point to 58 percent. Another party was named by 2 percent of those surveyed, a minus of one point.
64 percent of respondents named the Middle East conflict as the most important topic at the moment, followed by the Ukraine war at 39 percent. The federal government concerns 25 percent of those surveyed and 23 percent the issue of migration and immigration. Inflation and the economic situation were mentioned by 15 percent of those surveyed. Climate and environment as well as energy supply each concern 7 percent of survey participants.
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between November 7th and 13th. Database: 2504 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. The data on opinions about a grand coalition instead of the traffic lights and on the success factors of the AfD were collected between November 10th and 13th. Database: 1008 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 3 percentage points.
Further information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Deutschland.