RTL/ntv trend barometer
The Union loses on three questions
April 9, 2024, 2:12 p.m
The trend barometer shows a slight upward trend for the Liberals, while the CDU/CSU loses one point. When it comes to the chancellor issue and political competence, things are also going down slightly for the CDU and CSU.
There are only slight shifts in the trend barometer from RTL and ntv this week – but the Union and CDU leader Friedrich Merz lose one percentage point each on three questions.
When it comes to party preferences, the FDP can improve by one point compared to the previous week. The values of all other parties do not change.
If the Bundestag were to be elected this week, the parties could expect the following result:
- CDU/CSU 30 percent (federal election in September 2021: 24.1 percent),
- AfD 17 percent (10.3 percent),
- SPD 16 percent (25.7 percent),
- Greens 13 percent (14.8 percent),
- FDP 5 percent (11.5 percent),
- BSW 5 percent (-).
- The other parties, including, as in the previous week, the Left and the Free Voters, together remained unchanged at 14 percent.
At 24 percent, the proportion of non-voters and those undecided is still slightly higher than the proportion of non-voters in the last federal election (23.4 percent).
When asked about the Chancellor’s preference, both Merz and Chancellor Olaf Scholz lose one point each in both possible constellations. The values for Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock remain unchanged compared to the previous week.
If the Chancellor were not elected by the Bundestag, but directly, then in the Scholz/Merz/Habeck constellation, 18 percent would currently choose the incumbent from the SPD, 21 percent for the CDU chairman and 17 percent for the Greens. If it were not Habeck but Baerbock, Scholz would have 21 percent, Merz 24 percent and the Foreign Minister 16 percent.
When it comes to the question of which party can best deal with the problems in Germany, both the Union and the SPD lose. 15 percent are most likely to trust the CDU and CSU with political competence; that is one point less than the previous week. The SPD accounts for 9 percent here, also one point less. In response to this question, 8 percent named the Greens, an increase of one point. 6 percent consider the AfD to be politically competent, 2 percent the FDP and 3 percent one of the other parties. 57 percent do not trust any party to be able to deal with the problems in Germany.
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine continues to be on the radar: for 61 percent of Germans, it is the most important issue. This is followed, with an increasing trend, by the economic situation (39 percent) and the work of the federal government (36 percent). The Middle East conflict comes in fourth place (25 percent).
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between April 2nd and 8th. Database: 2506 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.
Further information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Deutschland.