RTL/ntv trend barometer
Union gains slightly, Merz gives up points
March 5, 2024, 2:07 p.m
While the Union gains one point, CDU leader Merz loses one or two percentage points on the chancellor question – depending on the situation among the competitors. But: The Union has been maintaining this comparatively high level for months.
The Union gained one percentage point in the trend barometer from RTL and ntv compared to the previous week. The CDU and CSU have been at or above 30 percent since November. The SPD also gains slightly. Greens and others each give one point.
If the Bundestag were to be elected this week, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 31 percent (federal election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), AfD 17 percent (10.3 percent), SPD 15 percent (25.7 percent). percent), Greens 14 percent (14.8 percent), FDP 5 percent (11.5 percent), BSW 4 percent (-), Left 3 percent (4.9 percent), Free Voters 3 percent (2.4 percent) .
8 percent of voters would choose other parties (including the Free Voters, 11 percent). The proportion of non-voters and undecided people is 24 percent, slightly higher than the proportion of non-voters in the last federal election (23.4 percent).
Unlike the Union, CDU leader Friedrich Merz loses easily on the chancellor question. With incumbent Olaf Scholz from the SPD and the Green Economics Minister Robert Habeck as competitors, 23 percent of Germans would choose Merz if the Chancellor were elected directly instead of by the Bundestag.
In the previous week, Merz scored two points more in this constellation. The gap to the other two is still clear: 15 percent would still choose Scholz, and 18 percent would still vote for Habeck.
If it were not Habeck who stood for the Greens, but Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, Merz would get 26 percent, a minus of one point compared to the previous week. Baerbock would come to 17 percent, also one point less, Scholz unchanged to 18 percent. Depending on the constellation, 44 and 39 percent respectively say that they would not vote for any of the people mentioned.
When asked which party is best able to deal with the problems in Germany, 18 percent name the Union, an increase of one point compared to the previous week. An unchanged 7 percent name the SPD. The Greens also came in at 7 percent in their assessment of political competence; they had done somewhat better the previous week. The AfD also achieved an unchanged 7 percent on this question, the FDP got 2 percent. 57 percent of Germans do not trust any party to have political competence.
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between February 27th and March 4th. Database: 2506 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.
Further information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Deutschland.