RTL/ntv trend barometer
Union increases distance to AfD
October 2, 2023, 2:01 p.m
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The Union is again clearly at the top of the RTL/ntv trend barometer, the AfD is losing slightly in popularity. If there were a federal election now, the Liberals would have to fear that they wouldn’t be able to get back into the Bundestag at all.
In the current RTL/ntv trend barometer, a slight gain for the Union and a simultaneous loss for the AfD ensures that the gap between the first and second place in voter approval increases again. The SPD can also improve slightly this week, while the Greens are stagnating as government partners and the third coalition party, the FDP, would even have to worry about returning to the Bundestag with its current result.
If the Bundestag were to be elected this week, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 28 percent (federal election in September 2021: 24.1 percent), AfD 20 percent (10.3), SPD 18 percent (25.7) , Greens 14 percent (14.8), FDP 5 percent (11.5), Left 4 percent (4.9). 11 percent of voters would choose other parties (8.7 percent). The other parties together achieved 11 percent approval. At 25 percent, the proportion of non-voters and undecided people is further higher than the proportion of non-voters in the last federal election (23.4 percent).
There are no changes in the Chancellor’s preferences in the Scholz – Merz – Habeck constellation compared to the previous week. In this constellation, if the Chancellor could be elected directly, incumbent Olaf Scholz would get 22 percent, CDU leader Friedrich Merz would get 20 percent and Economics Minister Robert Habeck could expect 16 percent of the vote. In the Scholz – Merz – Baerbock constellation, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock loses one percentage point, the values for Scholz and Merz do not change.
When it comes to assessing political competence, the AfD loses two percentage points, while the SPD and the Union each improve by one percentage point. The Union clearly leads here with 15 percent, ahead of the SPD with 9 percent and the Greens with 8 percent. Two percent of German citizens consider the FDP to be the most competent party, while 7 percent consider the AfD to be most capable of solving the problems in Germany. With 56 percent of respondents not attributing political competence to any of the parties represented in the Bundestag, this value remains constant.
Only 19 percent of German citizens believe that the current federal government under Olaf Scholz is doing a better job than the previous grand coalition government under Angela Merkel. On the other hand, more than twice as many (46 percent) consider the work of the traffic light coalition to be worse than that of the previous government. Even among the supporters of the three governing parties, only a minority have the impression that the traffic light government is doing a better job than the previous grand coalition. This is what 47 percent of Green supporters, 38 percent of SPD supporters and only 13 percent of FDP supporters think.
Germans hardly pay attention to climate change
The war in Ukraine is again seen as the most important issue by German citizens this week, with 35 percent of respondents reporting this. This is followed by the economic situation (25 percent), the state of the federal government (24 percent) and immigration (22 percent). At 13 percent, climate change is currently only in sixth place in terms of perception among Germans.
The data for the RTL/ntv trend barometer was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between September 26th and 29th. Database: 2004 respondents. Statistical margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.
The data on the work of the federal government was collected on September 28th and 29th, database here: 1009 respondents. The statistical margin of error is plus/minus 3 percentage points.
Further information about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Deutschland.