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There are rumors about the state of health of the Belarusian ruler. A chance for the opposition?
What happened? For the first time in 29 years, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was absent from the state flag ceremony. According to Ukrainian media, he was taken to a hospital. Whether that’s true and what he might be suffering from remains unclear at the moment.
What’s with the rumours? That’s hard to say, says Ingo Petz, a freelance journalist in the Belarusian capital of Minsk: “There’s actually only speculation and rumours.” However, one can see from the photos that Lukashenko looks quite battered; for example at the Russian parade on Victory Day, to which he is traditionally invited. “Now there are indications that he is being treated in a hospital in Minsk,” said Petz. It is not known whether he stayed there. “The state media in Belarus are silent about it,” says Petz.
Legend:
Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko (right) on Victory Day in the Russian capital Moscow. He’s talking to a war veteran.
Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS
The Belarusian opposition politician Pavel Latuschko suspects that Lukashenko has heart muscle inflammation. He has sources for this, but no one knows exactly, emphasizes Petz.
How are people in Belarus discussing the topic? It’s really difficult to say, according to the Eastern Europe expert. «Lukashenko should of course symbolize strength on the outside. He is also quite an impressive personality in terms of stature and has never really been ill in recent years,” he continues. Of course, that brings a “certain unrest when the omnipresent dictator disappears from the scene, so to speak.”
Of course, not a few wish that this system blesses the temporal.
In addition: In Belarus there has still been massive repression since the protests of 2020. “Of course, quite a few would like this system to die,” says Petz.
Why isn’t the government communicating more actively? One observes a reflex typical of autocratic systems, according to Petz: “If the head to which power and the entire political system is tailored suddenly becomes ill and can no longer be present, there is actually no plan.” Of course, the National Security Council will now meet. Nevertheless, one is “relatively helpless”. “And of course that alone causes unrest in this extremely personalized system,” emphasizes Petz.
How much could the opposition in exile benefit from the current situation? “She actually has no way of influencing the system itself,” says Petz. But of course she tries to bring a certain amount of unrest into the system to make it more unstable. The speculations about Lukashenko’s state of health are “a found meal” in this regard.
What would happen if Lukashenko were no longer operational? Such speculation is very difficult, says Petz. “The security systems will of course try to hold power in some form.” Russia should then also play a role. The role of Belarus in the war in Ukraine would also have an impact on these dynamics. And the opposition? She, too, should then try to exert influence, according to Petz. But all of that is “really difficult to anticipate,” especially since you don’t know exactly what’s going on with Lukashenko.