Russia announces partial withdrawal, but situation remains tense

Russia surprisingly announced a withdrawal of troops from the south-west of the country on Tuesday. The affected units have completed their drills and are returning to their permanent bases, Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said. The loading of military material had already begun. The news immediately raised hopes of a de-escalation in the Ukraine crisis. For weeks there had been no sign of an end to the troop deployment.

However, the significance of the latest statement from Moscow is difficult to assess for the time being. The announcement can represent both a military ruse and a signal of a will to relax. The Russian leadership continues to keep secrets. It was not disclosed how many soldiers were involved. The Ministry of Defense published video recordings of the alleged removal, but the time of their origin cannot be verified for the time being.

Giving in to the dispute over foreign observers

The remainder of the Department of Defense announcement is also significant. Accordingly, the large-scale exercise in neighboring Belarus, which has been followed with international concern, is now entering an important phase. According to Konashenkov, a large shooting exercise is to take place on Saturday at the Obus-Lesnowski military complex. Units of the Russian Naval Infantry and Air Force would also take part.

For the first time in the course of this crisis, Moscow says it has invited foreign observers and media. In the past few days, Russia has come under diplomatic pressure because its exercise in Belarus is likely to involve more than 13,000 men and, above this threshold, observers must be admitted according to the rules of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Minsk and Moscow had previously tried to excuse themselves by saying that not all Russian troops deployed to Belarus were taking part in the “Alliance Resolve 2022” maneuver.

The transparency that has now been partially created is an important signal. However, the said base is located inland, so inspectors will not get a glimpse of the extensive troop movements near the Ukrainian border. Videos from social networks indicate that material and personnel have been brought closer to the border from makeshift camps in recent days.

Russia has announced similar partial withdrawals before, but these turned out to be insignificant. The scope must therefore be closely monitored. The official video showed only one transport on the Crimean peninsula; similar evidence from other regions is lacking. The step that has now been announced only affects troops from the western and southern military districts, i.e. units whose permanent locations are not very far from Ukraine anyway. The troops that have arrived from the Far East and Siberia – tens of thousands of men – are all staying in the crisis area for the time being. This means that Russia still has the military potential for an invasion on the borders of Ukraine.

The Navy and Air Force reinforce the threat

Russia also insists on allowing the Navy to hold major maneuvers in the Black Sea. 30 warships are said to be involved, including several large landing ships that could drop tanks on the Ukrainian coast in the event of an invasion from the sea.

Last but not least, the concentration of Luftwaffe units in the crisis area is worrying. New satellite images show that Russia has recently deployed numerous warplanes and helicopters to regions along the Ukrainian border. The recordings published by the private company Maxar on Tuesday night show, for example, that the Primorsko-Akhtarsk air force base on the Azov Sea has been reinforced with ten modern Su-34 combat aircraft. The base is strategically important because it is only 120 kilometers from the Ukrainian port of Mariupol, which is often cited as a possible target for a Russian offensive.

Increases can also be seen on the annexed Crimean Peninsula based on the satellite images taken on Sunday and Monday. Several dozen combat and transport helicopters have recently been stationed there at an air force base near Novoozornoye. Helicopters have also arrived in the Belgorod province of western Russia.

Videos published on social networks also showed further movements of tanks and artillery in the immediate vicinity of the border on Monday and Tuesday in the Belgorod and Kursk areas. Obviously, some units have orders other than retreat.

Mockery of alleged hysteria in the West

However, signs of a possible easing are the recordings of a meeting held on Monday between President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. State television showed how Lavrov recommended the Kremlin chief to continue diplomacy and how Putin responded benevolently. Shoigu also announced that some exercises are nearing completion.

From the Russian side, the events of Tuesday are presented as groundbreaking. If the Kremlin does not want to go to war, it can now take the position that it has only ever pursued peaceful intentions and has only ever carried out military exercises to strengthen its own defenses. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has already written that the West has made a fool of itself with its “war propaganda”. There can be no question of this, because the massing of Russian troops undoubtedly poses a threat to Ukraine. It is the largest military build-up in Russia since the end of the Soviet era. All twelve armies of the ground forces and all five sub-fleets of the country are involved.