Another erratic session on the Paris Stock Exchange, the Cac 40 evolving within a margin of more than 360 points. In a “bear market” situation this morning after a fall of more than 20% compared to its record of January 5, the Cac 40 erased its losses on the announcement of a third session of discussions between officials. Russians and Ukrainians, although hopes of progress are almost nil. Reflecting the nervousness of the market, the V2X index, which measures the underlying volatility of the Euro Stoxx 500 index, crossed the 50 point mark for the first time since March 2020 to peak at 59.48.
Around 4 p.m., the Bedroom 40 fell 0.15% to 6,052.43 points after a low of 5,756.38 (-5.03%), unseen since March 2021. Trading volumes were particularly high with 4.9 billion euros traded on securities of the leading index. In New York, the Dow Jones fell by 1.14% and the Nasdaq Compositee of 1.03%.
Towards a barrel at more than 150 dollars?
Discussions on a possible embargo on Russian oil imports have heightened the risk of an inflationary shock. But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz objected to such an eventuality, recalling that Russian oil and gas imports are ” of essential importance for European economies. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday that the United States was in talks with its European allies to block imports of Russian oil. The Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, is planning to pass a law banning imports of Russian oil into the United States.
The barrel of Brent from the North Sea touched 139.13 dollars this morning (+18% compared to Friday’s close), its highest level since July 2008, before returning to around 121.50 dollars.
” Cutting off from Russian oil will put further upward pressure on crude prices and could propel the price per barrel above $150 in the near future warns Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote. And to add that ” the continued rally in oil and commodities should push European economies to ration their consumption and weigh on economic recovery and corporate results in 2022 “.
Gas prices for their part reached a new record in Amsterdam at 345 euros per megawatt-hour before returning to around 262 euros, an increase of 36%.
Exclusive Networks in sight
This surge in prices and the increase in the price of kerosene weigh on airlines as Air France-KLM, down 4.9%. Heavily exposed to Russia, Alstom fell 3.1%, while the war in Ukraine increases the risk of tensions in supply chains for the automotive sector. Stellantis thus loses 3.93% and Renault 2.7%. Sanctions against Russia are also weighing on banks despite the rise in bond yields. BNP Paribas down 3.7% and Societe Generale by 3.2%.
Conversely, the manufacturer of seamless tubes Vallourec lead of 5.2% and the defense electronics group Thales wins 6.68%, TotalEnergies gains for its part 1.4%. Other support from the Cac 40, L’Oréal garners 2.8% and Dassault Systems 4%. Biggest rise in SRD, Exclusive Networks jumped from 19.5, the specialist in the distribution of cybersecurity software being boosted by the explosion of needs in the field.
The ounce of gold crosses 2,000 dollars
In this context of high uncertainty, safe havens are playing their role, gold crossed the threshold of 2,000 dollars per ounce for the first time since August 2020, the Swiss franc briefly rose above the parity of 1 for 1 with the euro for the first time since 2015.
Investors are preparing for a long-lasting conflict in Ukraine and strong repercussions for the global economy, placing central banks in a dilemma between inflationary pressures, due to the boom in raw materials, and the risk of stemming the growth in the event of too sharp a rise in interest rates. The ECB, which is meeting its Governing Council on Thursday, should be patient in its plan to reduce support measures and could even adopt new ones, according to analysts at Capital Economics, particularly in the form of capital injections. liquidity to banks in a context of restrictions imposed on Russia.