The ebb is spectacular. In May, the number of job seekers without any activity (category A) fell by 134,100, to drop to 3.73 million across the country (including overseas, except Mayotte), according to data released. , Friday June 25, by the Ministry of Labor. This is the fourth largest drop on record since the creation in 1996 of this statistical series. It illustrates the resumption of growth, which is taking shape as health restrictions fall.
“This is good news, which must however be put into perspective”, comments Eric Heyer, from the French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures. First, these figures follow a sharp increase in the same indicator in April: people listed in category A of the Pôle Emploi had, in fact, seen their workforce increase by 1.7%, due to the reconfiguration decided. at the beginning of spring, which had played against the order book of companies. The noose having started to be loosened in May, hiring resumed, and with vigor: those of more than a month (excluding temporary) have even reached an unprecedented level since 2006.
“The fear of a tsunami removed”
Second downside: “Among those who were recruited last month, many only work for limited periods and continue to declare themselves looking for a position”, explains Eric Heyer. Suddenly, they switch from category A to categories B and C – those of so-called job seekers “In reduced activity”, the number of which rose by 95,000 between April and May (+ 4.4%). Taken together, categories A, B and C lose 0.6%, but still represent a group of nearly 6 million men and women.
“For category A alone, underlines Eric Heyer, the figures are 200,000 higher than those recorded in December 2019. There is certainly an improvement compared to the surge in unemployment in spring 2020, but we must be careful not to triumphantly. Especially since the difficulties can be masked by the recourse to partial unemployment, which remains important with some 2.3 million employees concerned. “
Associate professor at the University of Aix-Marseille, Gilbert Cette considers, for his part, that “The fear of a tsunami of bankruptcies and therefore of a sustained increase in unemployment has now been ruled out”. “As in the third quarter of 2020, where the rebound was surprised by its strength, our economy is benefiting from a dynamic that will play in full, as soon as the public authorities have completely eased the foot on the health constraints”, he continues. Now, he especially fears witnessing growing labor shortages “Which would restrain the recovery” : “There, the risk is real”, he notes.