Showdown for the presidency – New president for Argentina: moderate or radically libertarian? -News


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Two candidates, two models for Argentina. Many voters ask themselves: Who is the lesser evil?

Nerves are on edge in Argentina. There is discussion everywhere – and often in a heated manner: on the street, in the subway, among friends. What kind of country does Argentina want to be? One with a strong state and a publicly financed education and health system? This is what Sergio Massa, the incumbent economics and finance minister in the center-left government, stands for. He celebrated his campaign conclusion in a public secondary school.

Or will Argentina dare to undertake the radical change proposed by the libertarian Javier Milei? He was celebrated at his last election rally in the megacity of Córdoba. For his fans he is “el león”, the lion who wants to transform the country. Milei wants to abolish the central bank and introduce the dollar as a means of payment. The market should regulate everything, including educational opportunities and healthcare.

Milei puts the crimes of the last military dictatorship into perspective

Milei’s suggestions were rejected by the members of the tenants’ association. They ask themselves: Will they still be able to pay for their apartments if Milei wins the elections? Association president Gervasio Muñoz fears that the self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” could deregulate the rental market by decree.

“We are already observing short-term rental contracts for six or twelve months as well as exorbitant prices,” says Muñoz. “That could then become legal. We also find it unacceptable that Milei and his candidate for vice-presidency are putting the crimes of the last military dictatorship into perspective.”

Legend:

Shila Vilker, director of the Trespuntocero opinion research institute, on the two presidential candidates.

Source: Karen Naundorf

SRF: Shila Vilker, which candidate has the better chances?

We don’t see a clear winner. There are still undecided people. In addition, one in four Milei voters says it is a preference – but not yet a voting decision.

Milei supporters told us in interviews: We’ve basically already won. If we lose, it’s election fraud.

We are observing this systematic discourse and it is sensitive. A lot of things are going wrong in Argentina. But the electoral system works and is transparent. The specter of electoral fraud seems to me to be a reaction to an international phenomenon that we are seeing in many countries.

Milei voters told us they didn’t approve of all of his proposals, such as weakening gun laws, which was a mistake. At the same time they say: He won’t implement that, he just says that.

It’s a strange phenomenon when voters disagree with their candidate’s proposals. We observe that Milei has developed a charismatic bond that goes beyond his ideas and suggestions.

What do Milei voters like about their candidate? And what do his opponents reject about Milei?

Young people in particular appreciate his appearance as an economist. Where others see aggressive expressions, they recognize authenticity. Being the new one, standing for change, that is Milei’s big trump card. On the other hand, there is a long list of things that lead to rejection: he questions the democratic consensus and wants to cut or privatize public services. Many of his voters are beneficiaries of state benefits. It’s paradoxical when they vote for a candidate who says social justice is theft.

With inflation over 140 percent a year, why does a candidate like Sergio Massa, incumbent Minister of Economic Affairs, even have a chance?

Because the other candidate is Milei. The two explain and condition each other. The high inflation is real and the economic situation is difficult. Still, Massa builds authority. Many choose him to prevent Milei. And many vote for Milei so that Massa won’t be elected. Both sides fear that the other candidate will win the election.

“What’s the problem if the market regulates things?” asks Héctor Espinoza, a qualified economist and owner of a drinks market in a poor district. Like Milei, he sees Argentina’s bloated state apparatus as the biggest problem: “Wherever the state is present, things go wrong. Most state-owned companies are loss-making.”

There can be no “business as usual”. “We have inflation of 142 percent per year. The peso is constantly losing value. We need a change – and this change is called Milei,” says Espinoza. Milei has many followers in low-income sections of society. Many believe that the situation cannot get any worse than it is now.

If Milei suddenly opens the borders to imports, thousands of companies will close. That would trigger a social crisis.

That’s not true, says Daniel Rosato, head of the Association of Small and Medium-sized Industrial Enterprises: “If Milei suddenly opens the borders to imports, thousands of companies will close. That would trigger a social crisis.” He can understand that the employees at his paper factory are angry because their salaries barely last until the end of the month.

Nevertheless, he recently asked them not to decide out of anger, but to analyze: What do the candidates stand for? «Milei advocates privatization. Most of the workers send their children to public schools,” explains Rosato. Shift manager Alicia Alvarez says the conversation with the boss made her think: “Many of us have a great desire to punish the current government. But we have to think about what this means for Argentina.”

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