The smartphone market continues its slow decline. After a drop in sales of around 11% in 2022, 2023 accentuates the trend. According to IDC, the global market fell another 14.6% in the first three years of the year, the seventh consecutive quarter of decline. Either a drop greater than the forecasts of the research firm which was counting on 12.7%. Another study, that of Canalys, table, it, on a decline of 13%.
This downward trend is reflected in all geographies, including China with a decrease of nearly 12% in smartphone sales according to IDC. It is above all the emerging markets, particularly in the southern hemisphere, which show the most significant declines, of 17 to 20%. The United States and Western Europe fared better with declines of 11.5% and 9.4% respectively.
The causes cited to justify this sluggish mobile sales remain unchanged from one firm to another. Inflation affects consumer demand, despite price reductions and the proliferation of promotional offers. Manufacturers and distributors continue, for their part, their destocking to secure their margins.
A market recovery expected by the end of the year
Research Director at IDC World Wide Tracker, Nabila Popal says she is optimistic that the market will recover by the end of the year, even if it remains “ another 3 to 6 difficult months ahead “. The difficulty is for smartphone manufacturers not to relaunch the machine too soon and end up with excess stocks. For Canalys, the generalization of 5G and the wow effect of foldable terminals should be growth engines.
As far as manufacturers are concerned, the leading third for IDC remains unchanged with Samsung, ahead of Apple and Xiaomi. Taking advantage of its premium positioning, the apple firm is better off (- 2.3%) than its Korean rivals (-18.9%) and Chinese (- 23.5%). Canalys’ ranking changes. Samsung steals first place from Apple while Xiaomi completes the podium.
Apple captures 49% of the refurbishment market
This sluggishness of the new market must be compared with the good health of the second-hand market. According to the principle of communicating vessels, the same firm IDC predicts that the segment of second-hand smartphones will increase by just over 10% per year from 283 million dollars in 2022 to 413 million in 2026.
Less optimistic, Counterpoint estimates that the refurbished smartphone market grew by 5% in 2022. A figure that would have been much higher if sales in China had not collapsed (-17%) due, according to the firm based in Hong Kong local restrictions related to Covid. India, she superform (+ 19%).
Apple captures 49% of this refurbished phone market in 2022, followed by Samsung at 26%. More than in previous years, consumers have favored iconic and high-end smartphones, the Counterpoint study deduces. For 2023, the research firm estimates that the massive arrival of 5G smartphones should, in turn, devalue 4G models which will increase the flow of refurbished mobiles.
Refurbished products resonate with the environmental aspirations of consumers, particularly Generation Z (18-27 years old). A good thing for the planet. Much more than their use, it is the manufacture of digital terminals that is mainly responsible for their carbon footprint, up to 80%.
