Speculation about illness
ISW: Putin needs Kadyrov for stability in Chechnya
September 18, 2023, 9:05 a.m
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Speculation that Chechen leader Kadyrov is seriously ill is also causing unrest among Russian military bloggers, as the US think tank ISW reports. He also analyzes: “The destabilization of Kadyrov’s rule in Chechnya would be a serious blow to Putin’s regime.”
The ongoing concern about the health of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov in the Russian information space underscores Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dependence on Kadyrov for continued stability in Chechnya. This is the conclusion reached by the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Afterwards, the Ukrainian secret service’s statement that Kadyrov was in a coma caused great concern among Russian military bloggers and fueled further speculation about Kadyrov’s poor health. In one Telegram channel Pictures were published showing Chechen limousines in front of a hospital in Moscow.
In Chechnya, these reports were rejected. On Sunday on Kadyrov’s Telegram channel a video published that shows him taking a walk. The Chechen ruler, who seems out of breath, calls for more exercise. However, it is unclear when the recording came from. On Friday evening, Umar Daudov, an advisor to Kadyrov, published a video of the Chechen leader that was supposed to show him with his family. “Rumors that Kadyrov is seriously ill are regularly spread by opposition and pro-Ukrainian television channels,” wrote the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.
ISW: War in Chechnya made Putin popular
According to the ISW, if Kadyrov’s rule were to waver, this would also have massive consequences for the Kremlin. “The destabilization of Kadyrov’s rule in Chechnya would be a serious blow to Putin’s regime,” it said. On the one hand, establishing stability in Chechnya “through a brutal and bloody war was central to Putin’s early popularity in Russia.” On the other hand, Kadyrov and other Russian officials may be concerned that persistent rumors about his health could “affect the long-term stability of his, and therefore Putin’s, control over Chechnya.”
Kadyrov has sided with the Kremlin since the start of Russia’s all-out war against Ukraine. His soldiers are deployed in Ukraine, even if they are mocked as the “Tiktok troops” because of their videos.
Kadyrov came to power in 2007 and established a totalitarian regime in the Russian Caucasus republic. Opposition members are persecuted, and there are repeated unexplained deaths among government critics. There has been speculation for a long time that Kadyrov was ill.