State elections in Lower Saxony: SPD remains the strongest force

According to the first projections, the Social Democrats will win the state elections in Lower Saxony. The Greens and the AfD achieved the strongest growth – at the expense of the Union. It is unclear whether the FDP can stay in the state parliament.

The social democrat Stephan Weil can remain prime minister despite losing votes.

Frank Ossenbrink / Imago

Concerns about price increases and the energy crisis also determined the state elections in the German state of Lower Saxony. The governing Social Democrats still got the most votes and can probably continue to provide the prime minister.

According to the first projections, the SPD received 33.5 percent of the vote and thus remained the strongest force despite losses. “We are at the end of a tough, you could also say unpleasant election campaign,” said the election winner and Prime Minister Stephan Weil shortly after the announcement of the preliminary results. “We have experienced weeks that have been marked by the deep concerns of the citizens.”

The CDU suffered heavy losses and is expected to have its worst result in Lower Saxony in sixty years. According to projections, 27.5 percent of voters voted for the Christian Democrats.

The Greens achieved their historically best result in Lower Saxony. They come to 14 percent. The AfD can also win votes. According to the first results, it comes to 11.5 percent and can thus almost double its 2018 election result. The FDP has to tremble whether it stays in the state parliament. 5 percent of voters vote for the Liberals. The left is no longer represented in the state parliament, it currently has only 2.5 percent. A 5 percent hurdle applies.

Lower Saxony: gains and losses

Projection for state election 2022

The SPD thus managed to triumph in the last state elections this year. In Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia, the Social Democrats suffered heavy losses. They only won in Saarland. With the first results, a coalition of Social Democrats and Greens would also have a narrow majority. “We are ready to take responsibility,” said Green leader Omid Nouripour. But the grand coalition of SPD and CDU could also continue to govern.

Lower Saxony: possible coalitions

Projection for state election 2022

SPD and CDU
(«Groko») come together to 91 MPs (67%).

SPD and Green
come together to 69 MPs (51%).

CDU and Green
come together to 62 MPs (46%).

CDU and AfD
come together to 59 MPs (44%).

CDU and FDP
come together to 49 MPs (36%).

Labor Minister Hubertus Heil spoke of an election victory in very difficult times. “We are in a time when right-wing extremists are exploiting people’s fears without offering any solutions,” said the SPD politician.

Lower Saxony: distribution of seats

Projection for state election 2022

135 seats

The CDU General Secretary Mario Czaja described the electoral success of the AfD as “bitter” on ARD, since the AfD as a party “has no real answer to any social question that now plays a role”. Czaja said that displeasure with the federal government’s zigzag course had gone in favor of the right-wing fringe. The AfD boss Tino Chrupalla, on the other hand, blamed a “failed federal policy” for the price increases and the energy crisis. The AfD is the only party that has named the causes.

FDP leader Christian Linder said about his party’s poor performance: “The supporters of liberal politics are strangers to the traffic light coalition in Berlin.” The Liberals are in the coalition out of state-political responsibility and not because the SPD and the Greens are so close to his party’s substantive convictions. His party is paying a certain price for this, said the finance minister.

The energy crisis was decisive

Responses from voters in Lower Saxony to the question: “Which topic plays the most important role in your voting decision?”, in percent

During the election campaign, the SPD benefited greatly from the popularity of Prime Minister Stephan Weil. In surveys of the preferred Prime Minister, the SPD politician was regularly well ahead of his challenger Bernd Althusmann from the CDU. Althusmann drew the consequences of the loss of votes on the evening of the election and announced his resignation from the CDU state presidency.

The vote in Lower Saxony was shaped by federal political issues. Despite this, Weil was able to keep the mood stable. The CDU could not do much to counter this impression during the election campaign.

The climate was only decisive for Green voters

Answers from Green voters in Lower Saxony to the question: “Which topic plays the most important role in your voting decision?”, in percent

Although the Greens have gained a lot of votes, they were even more clearly ahead in the polls a few weeks ago. Economics Minister Robert Habeck’s crisis management and the gas levy that was collected again are likely to be the reasons for the losses.

Lower Saxony is heavily influenced by agriculture. In addition to around 8 million inhabitants, there are also 8 million pigs in the federal state. There are also more than 6000 wind turbines here. Due to the flat landscape, the country is well suited for the expansion of renewable energies. But there is also an industrial character: With Volkswagen in Wolfsburg, Europe’s largest car manufacturer is also based in the large state.

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