Then the first days of the war in Ukraine had plunged the world into dread, against a backdrop of Vladimir Putin’s warning of Russian nuclear forces, the stock markets were collapsing. Eight weeks later, across the Atlantic, the consequences are almost erased. In Paris, without reaching its historic high of 7,316 points on January 5, the CAC 40 index is now moving around 6,500 points, well above the 5,962 points, level to which it had fallen at the start of the invasion. from Ukraine.
Based on the slightest hypothetical progress in the talks between aggressor and attacked, investors sometimes seemed to act as if the Ukrainian question was on the way to being settled. They gave the impression that the financial consequences of this conflict on the eastern flank of Europe would dissipate in the not so distant horizon. Admittedly, it is in the habit of stockbrokers to anticipate, buying to the sound of cannons and selling to the sound of bugles, at the risk of being accused of being insensitive to the misfortunes of the world. However, these forecasts are very fragile.
According to the polls
First, informed observers agree that the war waged by Vladimir Putin can last. Then, even if it were to stop quickly, it should affect the economy for a long time. Finally, apart from the conflict in Ukraine, there are many other threats. In France, the Stock Exchange will evolve in the coming days at the rate of the polls. Investors do not want to believe in the election of Marine Le Pen and they risk acting brutally if the opinion polls do not go in this direction. But it is above all the economic climate that has changed in the world.
The period when liquidities poured into the financial markets, favoring their progress, is coming to an end. The reactions of the central banks to the rise in inflation may have been slow, but they will have to raise their key rate at a more sustained pace than expected some time ago. A more expensive money which, coupled with a rise in the price of raw materials, will weigh on the world economy. Investors will show feverishness in the coming months, leading to index volatility, ie sudden price changes in a very short period of time. Should savers, in this context, shun equities? Especially not ! First, because this type of investment can only be conceived over a long period of time. Then, because what the analysis of previous stock market crises teaches us is that catch-up movements can be as rapid as they are unexpected. Woe to those who are not invested in the markets at that time: they risk missing a good part of the rebound.