Storage well filled for winter
Study predicts significantly falling gas demand
September 22, 2023, 2:47 p.m
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The demand for natural gas will fall significantly in the coming years. A study comes to this conclusion. However, the targeted climate protection goals in the EU must also be adhered to.
European natural gas demand is becoming one study According to estimates, it will decrease significantly in the next 20 years – provided that the EU states meet their climate protection goals. According to a study by the management consultancy Deloitte and the Freiburg Öko-Institut, around 650 terawatt hours of natural gas will still be required in 2030, around a third less than in 2021. By 2040, demand could fall by two thirds and by 95 percent by 2050.
These estimates are based on the assumption that the EU states will meet their climate targets. The federal government wants to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. The authors of the joint study assume that natural gas consumption will initially fall in the building sector in the coming years, i.e. private households, businesses, commerce and services. According to the study, the industry could then accelerate the switch from natural gas to a CO2-neutral energy supply from 2030 onwards.
Experts come to similar forecasts for the entire EU. One reason: developments in the heating market. According to the forecast, heat pumps will generate almost half of the useful heat in Germany by 2050. By 2030, 80 percent of electricity generation is expected to come from renewable sources, and natural gas is likely to play an increasingly smaller role in industry until natural gas will no longer be needed there by 2050.
Stores are well filled
Meanwhile, the Federal Network Agency is relatively relaxed about the coming winter. “Germany is significantly better prepared for this winter than last year,” said authority President Klaus Müller. “The storage facilities are well filled, the alternative sources through which we can obtain gas and the savings rates are stable.”
One can certainly be optimistic, but it is still too early to give the all-clear. There remained residual risks. These included very cold weather conditions and the risk of a lack of Russian gas deliveries to the southeastern European countries. They currently still receive gas from Ukraine and, in the event of a shortage, would have to be supplied via Germany. Partial or complete failure of natural gas pipelines is also conceivable.
The day before, the authorities had rehearsed the emergency of a gas shortage. A supply situation was simulated all day long in which there was no longer enough natural gas in Germany to cover all desired requirements. In such a case, the authority, as a so-called federal load distributor, must decide which companies will restrict their gas consumption. The Federal Network Agency emphasized that the exercise took into account that the vital needs of household customers were subject to special protection.
Among other things, the infrastructure of the crisis team and the communication channels were tested. The Federal Ministry of Economics, several federal states and the company Trading Hub Europe also took part in the exercise. The joint venture between the long-distance pipeline operators is responsible, among other things, for ensuring that there is always enough natural gas in the pipelines in the German gas market area. In addition, 15 network operators, 17 industrial customers as well as storage operators and storage users took part. A total of around 200 people were involved in the exercise, including 70 at the network agency, where a crisis center was set up.