Friday 19th November 2021
Study confirms assumption
With AfD support, the corona numbers increase
After a Forsa survey, another study confirms the often suspected connection: the higher the votes for right-wing parties in an area, the higher the number of documented corona cases. AfD MP Brandner is critical of the study.
According to a study, the number of infections rose particularly sharply in the two corona waves in 2020 in districts with a high proportion of votes for the alternative for Germany. Factors such as the proximity of a region to the border, the number of schools or home office quotas can therefore be excluded as alternative explanations for the increase in incidences. This is the result of a published work by scientists from the Jena and Bielefeld sub-institutes of the Research Institute for Social Cohesion and the Helmholtz Center in Munich.
The starting point for the research was the assumption that there is a higher level of skepticism towards democratic institutions and a lower level of acceptance of the corona protective measures in regions with a high level of support for parties of the radical right, and that this is why the numbers are increasing. The Jena sociologist Matthias Quent, who is also involved in the work, had already pointed out such a possible connection last winter.
The scientists now used statistical models to investigate whether there was a connection between the AfD second vote share in the 2017 federal election and the increase in corona infection numbers in the waves of spring and autumn 2020 in the 411 districts and urban districts. To do this, they included a total of 48 factors in their calculations. In addition to demographic characteristics, the infrastructure, location and health care in the respective districts were also calculated. The aim was to rule out as many known alternative explanations as possible for regionally high incidences, said co-author Christoph Richter. The result: In regions with a high AfD share of second votes, the increase in the number of infections in the two waves in 2020 was higher than in districts with a low share of AfD second votes. That was shown in both East and West circles. “The assumption that is sometimes made that the connection is a specifically East German phenomenon cannot be confirmed on the basis of the results,” the authors write. The researchers were unable to determine a similar effect for any of the other parties in the Bundestag.
Clear result surprised
In addition, it could be shown that there is also a connection between the proportion of votes of other right-wing parties and the proportion of non-voters in the past and the Corona numbers today. This indicates that people in these regions have long since distanced themselves politically and democratically. “We were surprised that it shows so clearly,” said Richter. However, the results did not mean that all AfD voters violated Corona measures or that all opponents of the measures were AfD voters, the scientists said. Since it is about data at the district level, no statement can be made about individual motives.
With a view to the current infection situation, one could speculate that the connection between the political culture in a region and the number of infections is even stronger, Richter said. This can be seen in the debate about vaccination readiness in the regions that currently have particularly high incidences. In order to make a scientifically verifiable statement, however, it must be calculated statistically. The problem: The available vaccination data are not broken down according to place of residence, but according to the location of the vaccination.
Brandner finds the study “ridiculous”
The deputy AfD federal spokesman and Thuringian member of the Bundestag, Stephan Brandner, described the results as ridiculous: “It is more than shabby to now use pseudoscientific studies to put the blame on corona sufferers on the AfD,” he said. The Jena Institute for Democracy and Civil Society, which was involved in the study, is “permeated by radical left forces and its main business is defaming the AfD.”