She should remain one area of French economic policy with near consensus among elected officials and public opinion, it should be the question of housing for the most precarious. Moreover, despite the criticism he may have received, the new Minister of Housing, Guillaume Kasbarian, welcomed the unanimous adoption by the Senate, Wednesday February 28, of a draft law against “degraded housing” offering tools to support fragile co-ownerships and tackle slumlords. Politicians agree on at least one thing: we need a “major housing law” to provide shelter to the French.
But which ? Since the appeal launched by Abbé Pierre, in the heart of winter 1954, successive governments have piled up laws, without really succeeding in resolving the problem. There is still not enough housing and they are therefore too expensive, whether to buy or rent. There is a shortage of around 150,000 new homes each year to meet demand. This followed the transformations of society, in particular the multiplication of single-parent families and the migration of populations towards coastal areas.
“Offer shock”
The concern is that most successive support policies have generally had the side effect of pushing up prices. Housing aid has led to an increase in rents, while successive investment support plans have also caused new property prices to jump. According to the finance committee of the National Assembly, the Scellier system, for example, subscribed to in the 2010s, resulted in an increase in prices of almost 10% and will still cost the State in 2024. All this for 75 000 housing units. A cost five times higher per accommodation than that paid for social housing. Finally, the policy of lowering rates of the European Central Bank following the 2009 crisis added a layer by encouraging borrowing… and price progression.
Today we are paying the bill for two crises, that of 2009 with its low rates and that of 2023 with the explosion of inflation, particularly in construction. To break this vicious price circle, the government promises a “supply shock”. But building more in dense and artificial areas, which will be essential, at the same time as reducing vacant premises, pleases neither the populations nor the elected officials of the territories concerned, especially when it comes to social housing. Thus ends the beautiful consensus outlined in the Senate. The essential drop in prices will be painful.