Switzerland will soon have 9 million inhabitants

A sentence like an arrow: “The limits of immigration and population growth have been reached.” It comes neither from Christoph Blocher nor from the SVP parliamentary group leader Thomas Aeschi. The little man’s Jeanne D’Arc said it, the Zurich SP national councilor Jacqueline Badran. In April 2012. Every year since then, as many people have immigrated to Switzerland as can be accommodated in a medium-sized city like Biel or St. Gallen. Germans, Italians, French, Portuguese, Albanians, Serbs, Canadians. Over 60 percent of the newcomers come from EU countries. The free movement of people makes it possible.

Most Europeans consider Switzerland to be an oasis

The population in Switzerland has grown by more than 21 percent since 2000: from 7.17 million people to 8.67 million in 2020. The following year 60,000 people moved to Switzerland, and by the end of this year there will be at least as many. If you count the number of refugees from the Ukraine and those seeking asylum, Switzerland could grow by 200,000 people between January and December. From 8,736,500 to almost 9 million.

In no other European country apart from Luxembourg is immigration as high as in Switzerland: neither in Germany, where the parallel societies that have emerged are a permanent issue, nor in Sweden, where an unsuccessful migration policy has led to open gang wars. Despite this, Switzerland manages to convey an image of idyllic national homogeneity to the outside world. Most Europeans consider Switzerland to be an oasis. A country where bankers and bearded hipsters live in peaceful co-existence with mountain farmers. A country where a coffee costs almost 6 francs: a no brainer for the rich locals.

25.7 percent have a foreign passport here; in Germany it is 13.1 percent. Nevertheless, immigration in Switzerland is currently not an issue. Even the SVP refrains from cultivating their favorite topic. To be on the safe side, she prefers to concentrate on “asylum migrants”. The SVP likes to see itself as a business party, and business has no interest in a broad debate on immigration. There is a shortage of skilled workers everywhere. We are looking for female engineers, technicians, pharmacists, doctors, cooks and waiters. So far, domestic workers have not been displaced by foreigners. Wages were hardly under pressure either. Switzerland is dependent on immigration.

As true as this statement is, it is also one-sided. The truth is that the Swiss want to work part-time and are therefore looking for well-paid jobs that allow them a relaxed work-life balance. Almost a million workers will leave the labor market in the next ten years. The Swiss want to retire by the age of 65 at the latest. The immigrants meanwhile pay our AHV and look after the baby boomers in the future.

But it is also true that rapid population growth comes at a price. Building land and apartments are becoming scarce, the transport infrastructure is reaching its limits. Whether teachers or electricity: the resources have to be distributed among more and more people. On the freeway, in schools, in urban seaside resorts – it’s getting cramped everywhere.

Also thanks to immigration, the Swiss economy is growing at an above-average rate, which is reflected in the gross domestic product. On the other hand, if you look at the GDP per employed person, it is only 0.5 percent – significantly less than in Germany and in the EU with 1.2 percent each. Economic growth is therefore not based on more efficient production, but on growth. This is not sustainable from either an economic or an ecological point of view.

The downsides of strong immigration are well known. Nevertheless, they are largely ignored by politics and business. The memory of the consequences of the SVP mass immigration initiative of 2014 is still too fresh. The EU Commission saw the principle of free movement of people between the European Union and Switzerland as being violated, and Commission President José Manuel Barroso said that Switzerland could not enjoy all the advantages of the world’s largest market without allowing free access for EU citizens in return grant. The chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, Elmar Brok, found that “cherry picking” should not prevail. In the same year, the EU and Switzerland began official negotiations on a framework agreement.

Since then, many scenes have been pushed back, but the play hasn’t really progressed. 15 months ago, the Federal Council broke off negotiations on an institutional agreement. The reasons for this have complicated names such as Union Citizens Directive, Posting Directive or Dispute Settlement Procedure. As in 2014, the core issue is immigration. The most pressing questions are: How can immigration into social assistance be prevented? How can the Swiss wage level be protected? And how can Switzerland remain independent if the European Court of Justice ultimately decides on immigration and wage protection issues? The result of years of tug-of-war: the EU still doesn’t particularly like Switzerland.

The Bundesrat is of the opinion that the EU must move on these issues. That’s why the state government hasn’t come out of the reduit for almost a year and a half when it comes to European policy, and that’s why the brother and sisterhood of Europe friends around Operation Libero and a few other Europhile politicians are once again putting pressure on parliament. The Federal Council is to be forced into negotiations with the EU by means of a popular initiative and a federal resolution.

Without Italians, Switzerland would probably still be like Schaggi Streuli’s “Taxichauffeur Bänz” from 1957

The elephant in the room is Switzerland’s European policy, says Operation Libero. She’s wrong: it’s immigration policy. The core question is: Should a confederation of states with 450 million inhabitants be able to dictate a Union citizens’ policy to a small independent state with almost 9 million inhabitants? A country that has welcomed 2 million people in just over twenty years? Once again Jacqueline Badran’s voice from 2012: “How much immigration do we want, how much immigration can Switzerland tolerate?”

Switzerland is lucky with its newcomers. Without Germans, many parishes and neighborhood associations would dissolve. The Albanians are sticking to the vocational training that the Swiss are increasingly spurning, and without the Italians, Switzerland would probably still be like Schaggi Streuli’s “Taxichauffeur Bänz” from 1957. Switzerland has model immigrants, and she is a world champion of integration. Elementary school, apprenticeship and club life make it easier to settle in.

Nevertheless, more and more immigrants decide to return to their homeland. In 2020 alone, 10,000 Portuguese left Switzerland. Immigration figures are also declining among Germans. If the trend continues, in the medium term fewer and fewer people will put down roots in Switzerland. They no longer come to Switzerland to work and to live. You only come to work. This is not a good development. Because Switzerland doesn’t just need skilled workers who come and go. It needs new Swiss people. People who understand the value of direct participation, militia work and minority protection and appreciate the complicated system.

Switzerland does surprisingly little for this. A quarter of the population is not allowed to have a say in what happens to their taxes. The right to vote for foreigners does not have majority voting rights. The elementary school, which has guaranteed successful integration for decades, is ailing. Fewer and fewer teachers are caring for more and more children. Private schools are booming. In Pisa studies, Swiss schoolchildren only get mediocre results, and politicians stand by and do nothing. In the past, every party had well-established dossier guides for education policy. Today they leave the issue to the legions of full-time education experts who deal with ever new reforms.

Switzerland lives well with its newcomers. That is why the vast majority of Swiss people support the free movement of people. Even an institutional agreement with the EU would probably be able to win a majority if the European Union were to grant its smaller partner exceptions in the event of overburdening in the vital issues of wage protection and immigration.

The biggest challenge, however, lies in domestic politics. As long as the economy is strong, immigration will be tolerated. How long will the friendly tolerance last if the electricity crisis triggers an economic crisis and a wave of refugees sets in?
The consequences of rapid population growth have been known since the St. Gallen economist Francesco Kneschaurek predicted Switzerland would have 10 million people in the 1960s. Politicians must finally look the elephant in the eye.