American support for democratic Taiwan is of enormous importance. But the costs and benefits of a purely symbolic trip to Taiwan were not carefully considered in Washington.
US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi is causing tension with her plans to visit Taiwan.
Political crises come in three different varieties. Some come as a complete surprise to governments, others smolder for years and are passed on like a hot potato from state leadership to state leadership. And then there are the problems that politicians cause themselves out of sheer inability.
This third category includes the fuss surrounding US Congressional leader Nancy Pelosi’s planned trip to Taiwan. The fact that the speaker of the House of Representatives wants to express her support for the democratic island republic that is under pressure from China is certainly commendable. But the approach seems highly clumsy and is exacerbated by the Biden government’s confused information policy. As a result, the United States now has only two evils to choose from – either give in to China or uselessly fuel the conflict over Taiwan.
China rattles the saber
How Pelosi will decide remains to be seen. The Democrat leaves for Asia with a congressional delegation without disclosing whether she will also stop in Taipei. China, which regards the island as a breakaway province, has made unusually explicit threats of military harassment. In addition prophesied influential commentator Hu Xijin in a party newspaper that China would wage a “steadfast struggle” to thwart the visit.
The West should not be intimidated by such saber-rattling. Beijing can spread nervousness by deploying interceptors in the airspace around Taiwan, but the communist leadership is unlikely to resort to an open act of war – and that would mean shooting down Pelosi’s plane. The US has the military means to safely escort the plane carrying congressional politicians to Taiwan and back.
Rather, the question is how wise such a show of force would be. What do the Americans want to achieve with the visit anyway? There is nothing to indicate that Washington has thought deeply about it. Pelosi is America’s third highest-ranking public officer. It would be the most prominent visit to Taiwan since 1997, when the then Speaker of the House of Representatives arrived – albeit under completely different geostrategic circumstances. For decades, the US strictly followed its policy of non-recognition of Taiwan and only sent low-ranking emissaries to maintain relations.
Pelosi’s visit, on the other hand, can hardly be interpreted other than that the US wants to take a step towards recognizing Taiwan’s statehood. This is at odds with the unsatisfactory but ultimately successful one-China policy of the past fifty years. It is based on agreements with Beijing and states that Washington recognizes only one China – the People’s Republic. Part of this carefully balanced policy is also that the US stands against a violent unification of Taiwan with mainland China, while at the same time leaving open how far it wants to go in defending Taiwan.
All sides have done well with this course, not least the island itself, which has developed into a flourishing and economically successful democracy. The Americans should not shake this foreign policy construct. If they do their part, they will also have greater credibility in their claim that Beijing, for its part, must not change the status quo.
Help yes, but with substance
In addition, such a trip represents mere symbolic politics. Much more important would be to quietly help Taiwan improve its defense capabilities. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated the importance of certain defensive weapons, from anti-ship missiles to anti-aircraft systems and precision artillery. The island republic still has appalling gaps in these areas. But these can be closed – and thus reduce the risk of a Chinese invasion.
With the approval of such arms deals, Congress can help Taiwan more effectively than with a handshake in Taipei, which is overshadowed by a self-inflicted crisis. Pelosi can still avert the latter by feigning an indisposition or postponing her visit to Taiwan until next year. In all likelihood, it will then no longer be number three in American politics.