Yes Take-two saw a small decline in form on the stock market following its takeover of Zynga earlier this week, the publisher intends to make up for it in the years to come. During this takeover, Axios noticed that Take-Two then planned to increase its revenue and annual growth by 14% by the end of fiscal year 2023/2024. And according to some analysts, only a few cases can mean such an increase, and the most advanced theory is of course that of the exit of GTA VI.
GTA VI or not GTA VI?
This is the analyst Doug Creutz who plays Nostradamus first, stating that this increase could be $ 9 billion for the company, which would mean ” probably the launch of GTA VI in fiscal year 2024 “. Axios reports that Take-Two has already made predictions so far for GTA V before its release, and that the publisher may well do the same here for GTA VI.
I’m struggling to work out how a 14% increase indicates a GTA 6 release. At a very quick glance, GTA 5 shot revenue up by + 110%, and RDR2 shot revenue up by + 60%.
Seems to indicate a smaller release to me.
– Tom Henderson (@_Tom_Henderson_) January 13, 2022
We now come to the famous part of “yes, but”. Like Tom henderson Underlines it, an increase of 14% seems to be ultimately low enough for a release as expected as that of GTA VI. He recalls that when leaving GTA V, revenues had grown much more than that, at 110%, although looking at the balance sheet at the time, Take-Two instead indicates 94% for the increase in revenues in 2014, while they increased by 47% for the year of release Red Dead Redemption 2 (contrary to the 60% indicated).
Still, a 14% increase would ultimately be quite minor for an output such as GTA VI, even if, we agree, with these percentage stories, you always have to be careful. It is difficult to compare today’s 14% with those of yesterday, given that they are calculated from one year to the next using figures which change.
It should also be noted that this increase comes just after the takeover of Zynga, and undoubtedly aims to reassure investors (because let us remember that Zynga is a company with a difficult history, loss-making for several years) by providing everything that Zynga can bring to the publisher.
So no, that doesn’t necessarily mean that GTA VI will be released at the end of 2023/2024, contrary to what some will hasten to titrate. This is obviously possible, but Take-Two’s forecast for an increase in revenue is not enough data to definitively rule on this..