Tuesday, December 28, 2021
Ten years in power
Kim Jong Un is left empty-handed
When Kim Jong Un took power in North Korea ten years ago, he was considered a blank slate. But Kim consolidates his position, he continues to expand the nuclear program. Nevertheless, he is now under a lot of pressure.
Even after ten years in power, Kim Jong Un is difficult to pin down as a person and statesman abroad. North Korea’s rulers like to be affable and close to the people towards the citizens of his country, in the West Kim is regarded as an ice-cold despot of a state whose control and reprisals extend into all areas of life of the citizens. Despite severe international sanctions that have been hampering the economic development of his country for years, Kim is sticking to the nuclear weapons program.
Kim Jong Un’s father, Kim Jong Il, died on December 17, 2011 as a result of a heart attack. At that time, his son actually took over the affairs of state. However, it was only after a 13-day mourning period that he was officially proclaimed “Supreme Leader of our Party, the Military and the People” on December 29th. He was given the same dictatorial powers as his father and grandfather Kim Il Sung.
What followed is described by observers as a phase of consolidation of power. Kim achieved this through political cleansing, to which numerous high-ranking officials including his uncle Jang Song Thaek fell victim.
“Genius of genius”
When Kim took power in the totalitarian state, he was not even 30 years old. The neighboring countries worried at the time that a phase of instability could follow in the Stalinist-ruled North Korea. Kim Jong Un was largely unknown even in South Korea, and his political goals were unclear.
At home he was described by the state propaganda machine shortly after the seizure of power as the “genius of geniuses” – with that he should be above all doubt among his compatriots. North Korea marked the 10th anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s death by appealing to the population and soldiers to remain completely loyal to their son.
But at the moment Kim, who recently appeared slimmer, is seen in a particularly critical phase of rule. In addition to the sanctions, North Korea was also hit hard by the consequences of the corona pandemic. The already isolated country had closed its borders early on because of the pandemic, which had a strong impact on trade with China. Kim was unable to meet his economic goals. This could undermine his authority, so observers believe.
The meetings with Trump were inconclusive
South Korean MP Ji Seong Ho, who fled North Korea, says prices have risen in the domestic market. “The main burden has to be borne by the population.” In any case, Ji believes that the “opposition” to Kim among young North Koreans is greater today than it was in Kim Jong Il’s time.
In all of his actions, the country’s nuclear weapons played an important role in Kim’s development of power from the start. Kim’s father had a rather “ambiguous stance” with regard to the nuclear program, says the former South Korean nuclear negotiator Lee Do Hoon. Kim Jong Un, on the other hand, “immediately after taking power, steered the course towards active nuclear development”. Four of the six nuclear tests carried out by North Korea so far have been carried out under Kim Jong Un, the largest so far and the last in September 2017. He also pushed ahead with the development of ballistic missiles, which, depending on their design, can also carry nuclear warheads.
The nuclear program is perceived as a threat in a large part of the world. For the United States, which Pyongyang accuses of hostile policies, it represents a direct challenge. Kim’s threats against the United States, but also his diplomacy toward Washington, including his three high-profile meetings with former US President Donald Trump between June 2018 and June 2019 brought him to the world political stage. In the end, both of them stood empty-handed.
“Military first” became “Military first”
If Kim sees nuclear weapons as a guarantee for the political survival of his administration, why does he engage in talks with Trump about “denuclearization”? The sanctions have had increasingly clear consequences for the economy, says Lee. Kim needed “some economic relaxation”. But Trump didn’t want to ease sanctions or provide economic aid until Kim made major concessions on nuclear disarmament.
In the opinion of the former German diplomat Thomas Schäfer, the easing of sanctions for North Korea plays a rather subordinate role. “With North Korea you have to start with the long-term goals, and the goals have been the military-political goals for several years, actually since Kim Jong Un took office,” says the former German ambassador in Pyongyang. This includes an end to the joint maneuvers by the USA and South Korea, “and then, as a bigger step, the withdrawal of American troops”.
According to Schäfer, Kim is not the absolute ruler of the country. He doesn’t make the decisions alone. When the so-called “Byongjin” line under Kim Jong Un followed Kim Jong Il’s “military first” policy in 2013, there was hope that North Korea could use more resources for the economy. The line envisaged the parallel development of a nuclear force and the economy. “The name was propaganda,” says Schäfer. The slogan was intended to conceal “that the military-first policy became the military-first policy”.