The new rise in key ECB rates should have a further impact on mortgage rates, which have already been rising sharply for several months.
Another bad news for future borrowers looking for a mortgage. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), announced on Thursday 27 October a further increase in its key rates by 75 basis points.
With this third increase since July, the rate on bank deposits rose from 0.75 to 1.5%, while the refinancing rate rose to 2%, levels that have not been reached since 2009. And as noted by Sandrine Allonier, porte- In the words of the broker, Vousfinancer, real estate credit may well suffer from this new increase.
It must be said that in 2009, when ECB rates were similar to those of today, mortgage rates over 20 years in France were set at around 4%.
Towards rates over 3%?
While credit rates over this duration are currently on average 2.30% (compared to 1% in January 2022), the rise could well continue. A few days ago, the CSA Housing Credit Observatory explained that with the acceleration of inflation and the rise of uncertainties, the average rate for a mortgage could reach 2.80% in June 2023 to slowly come down to 2.45% at the end of 2023, a level at which it would stabilize in 2024.
save up to 70% on your borrower insurance
In its mortgage rate forecast for November 2022, the broker Cafpi explains for its part that in the current state of things, the 3% mark could be exceeded: We can expect rates approaching 2.50% at the end of the year, the ceiling of the wear rate not allowing a greater increase. These increases of around 0.50% per quarter should continue until credit rates reach a level compatible with the banks’ refinancing costs. In the current state of the financial markets, we estimate this landing point to be around 3.50%explains Olivier Lendrevie, president of Cafpi.
Compare and find the best rate