Grounded during the Covid-19 pandemic, planes are slowly getting back to cruising speed – and this is just the beginning, warns Boeing.
On land at the height of the pandemic, literally and figuratively, the aeronautics sector is now experiencing a real rebound. The so-called single-aisle planes, which are used more for short distances, have seen their fleet return to 98% of the level recorded before the coronavirus crisis. And the large aircraft fleet, intended for long-haul (international travel) is at 78%, with a rapid upward trend. This recovery, which is not without hiccups (strikes, canceled flights, shortage of staff (s) in airports), is the harbinger of a historic upturn for the sector. The number of aircraft is expected to grow 82% by 2041, Boeing tells us.
A growth in the number of aircraft which coincides with the renewal of the world fleet
All manufacturers combined, the world’s aircraft fleet is expected to exceed 47,000 in 2041, according to Boeing’s latest commercial report. To make us aware of the monster evolution that awaits aeronautics, the American manufacturer recalls that in 2019, the year preceding the pandemic, this same planetary fleet was made up of 25,900 aircraft.
The demand for new aircraft should rise to more than 41,000 over the next twenty years, with a major renewal therefore of the world fleet. Airbus, for its part, estimates that the world will need 39,490 new passenger planes by 2041, evoking a fleet almost equal to that estimated by Boeing, around 47,000. The growth in the number of passengers should, it, to increase by 3.8%.
The figures are obviously flattering for aeronautics, but they do show a strong recovery in activity, justified by the fact that travelers can travel again. But all is not yet restored, countries like Japan and China still remaining closed to tourism, even if the Chinese regulator of civil aviation announced, a few days ago, to want to increase the number of international flights to second semester, for diplomats and business travellers.
Within 10 years, more than 50% of aircraft should be replaced by more fuel-efficient aircraft
In detail, Boeing explains that half of the passenger planes will be used to replace aging current models, to give pride of place to models based on sustainable aviation fuel, for example. The manufacturer is also not forgetting potential new carbon taxes, which could accelerate the generational transition of devices.
” New planes offer significant efficiency gains, and the planes manufacturers deliver and develop today will be 25-40% more fuel efficient than those they replace, in many cases. “, justifies Boeing. The aircraft manufacturer even explains that ” by 2031, more than 50% of the older generation passenger aircraft then in service in 2019 will be replaced by current models, enabling a significant reduction in carbon emissions “.
The carbon footprint of aeronautics is a major issue, at a time when rail prices are skyrocketing and fuel prices are soaring. It is not a question of bringing together several debates, but the aviation sector must respond to both short-term challenges and long-term objectives.
Finally, with regard to demand, China, which is struggling to have its own aircraft certified for international flights, is still turning to Western aircraft manufacturers, and more particularly to Airbus, as evidenced by the recent order for 292 Airbus A320neos placed by airlines. the middle Empire. 40% of requests are currently concentrated in Asia. Boeing obviously does not talk about it, but the balance of power that opposes it to its European competitor is now largely unfavorable to it. The geopolitical context weighs heavily.
Source : Boeing report
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