The Bank of Portugal (BoP) on Wednesday revised its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth for this year upwards to 6.3%, against a previous estimate of 4.9%, despite higher than expected inflation. due to the international context.
This dynamism is explained in particular by the recovery of tourism, one of the key sectors of the Portuguese economy, which should reach the levels before the pandemic from the second quarter, explained during a press conference the governor of the Portuguese central bank, Mario Centeno, admitting he was surprised at the speed of the recovery.
In the first quarter, Portugal’s GDP grew by 2.6% quarter on quarter and 11.9% year on year, the highest growth rate in the entire European Union.
However, the BoP has slightly revised down its growth forecast for 2023, to 2.6% against a previous estimate of 2.9%. For 2024, its growth forecast is maintained at 2%.
The inflation forecast has for its part been adjusted upwards, to 5.9%, against 4% previously, due to the repercussions of the conflict in Ukraine.
We expected inflation to rise but not as much, said Mario Centeno.
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The Portuguese economy suffered the direct and indirect impact of the invasion of Ukraine contributing in particular to accentuate the disturbances in the global production chains, underlined the central bank.
The unemployment rate should continue to fall, to settle at 5.6% this year and 5.4% the following two years.
The Portuguese economy will also continue to benefit this year from the dynamism of exports, with an estimated increase of 13.4%, also specifies the last economic bulletin of the BdP.