During the three-day visit of Chinese President Xi to Russia, there was a clear message: that he and Putin stick together, that nothing fits between them. This will certainly not make Ukraine any more peaceful.
Did Vladimir Putin nervously pace through the Kremlin on Monday morning, repeatedly pulling aside a curtain to see if the plane from China was approaching? Probably not. But the Russian President had every reason to be nervous about the three-day visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two know each other well, they have already met around 40 times. They’re officially friends too, pretty best friends even if there’s such a thing in politics. Shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine, the two had reassured themselves of their “boundless friendship.”
But the relationship between Xi and Putin has changed since the war began. There can no longer be any question of eye level, if there ever was one. Putin now looks up steeply to Xi. The powerful Chinese is not only his most important ally, but also the only international statesman with global acclaim who still travels to Moscow. Shortly after an international arrest warrant was issued for the Russian president, this is worth its weight in gold for Putin. “That shouldn’t be overestimated at all,” said Cologne political scientist Thomas Jäger on ntv.
Because the Kremlin ruler has not only been internationally isolated since the arrest warrant. Not quite as much as Western governments would like, but strong. Nobody shouted “Hurrah” when the Russians set out to destroy their neighboring country. Probably not in Beijing either. “This war is not in the interest of the Chinese at all,” said China expert Nadine Godehardt from the German Science and Politics Foundation shortly after the attack on ntv.de. Because China’s priority is China itself, and that means internal stability. There are some construction sites there: the consequences of the Corona crisis, the severe real estate crisis and the weak economic growth by Chinese standards.
Kiesewetter: No interest in a quick end to the war
In the West, there is persistent hope that China could play a constructive role in bringing Putin to the negotiating table. After all, President Xi has repeatedly spoken out against the use of nuclear weapons in the conflict. CDU foreign politician Roderich Kiesewetter warns against ntv.de against creating illusions. “China has no interest in a quick end to the war,” he says. “It is in China’s interest that the West slowly wears itself out. That civil society is splitting up and becoming restless. That they are willing to make concessions in fear of a further spread of the war.”
Foreign politician Roderich Kiesewetter (CDU) does not believe that a peace initiative could emanate from Xi’s visit.
“We also know that China is supporting Russia indirectly with semiconductors and other armaments. Hong Kong is the big hub there. China is a party in this process.” According to Kiesewetter, this is less about the Ukraine and more about China’s own major foreign policy goal: the incorporation of Taiwan. China hopes that the West will eventually be so exhausted that China can occupy the island without major sanctions from Europe.
Marie-Agnes Strack Zimmermann, chairwoman of the Defense Committee in the Bundestag, does not believe that China could play a mediating role. “I don’t think that Xi’s visit is a serious peace initiative. The Chinese twelve-point plan was so pro-Russian that it had nothing to do with a peace plan,” the FDP politician told ntv.de. “At best, it could be about a ceasefire. But that would only bring one advantage for Russia, namely a breather to serve a new attack.”
Common opponent: USA
China presented the twelve-point plan a few weeks ago, demanding, for example, that the territorial integrity of the states must be preserved. To Western ears, that sounded like Ukraine should remain intact – but experts like Nadine Godehardt assume that this was actually aimed at China and its claim to Taiwan. The reading: Since China regards Taiwan as part of its own territory, “intact” means that Taiwan must belong to China again. “I don’t think that China is interested in Ukraine’s territorial integrity in any way,” said Strack-Zimmermann.
“China and Russia have one thing in common, and that is their rejection of the West and the free, democratic world,” says the FDP politician. China has an interest in Russia becoming even more dependent on Beijing. For example, the People’s Republic stepped in as a buyer of Russian energy exports. From the Chinese point of view, Russia should not lose either – because then the West would have prevailed. Strack-Zimmermann: “Putin is putting himself completely in the hands of China.”
Above all, China has its economic interests in mind. “The Chinese economy has suffered because people have been sitting at home for three years during the pandemic.” A long war could harbor a risk. At the same time, China is sitting between the chairs – despite the common rejection of Western values, the country is dependent on Europe and the USA as economic partners. “Xi’s promise to the Chinese is that the economy will grow steadily. He has to keep that,” says Strack-Zimmermann.
Xi does not talk to Zelenskyy
For Kiesewetter, the fact that China is not an honest broker but a party itself is also shown by the fact that Xi has been rejecting offers of talks from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a year now. “It would be different if Xi were to visit Kiev and had long since accepted the requests for mediation or at least talks.” According to Kiesewetter, the Chinese reaction to the international arrest warrant against Putin was also clearly pro-Russian. “China called on the International Criminal Court to be impartial.”
“What kind of mediation are you hoping for?” asks the CDU politician. “If Russia stops fighting, the war will be over.” The aim of mediation should not be to establish the status quo. The aim must be to restore the Ukrainian borders of 1991. If so, then everything would have to be on the table – for example, Russia would have to credibly withdraw its imperial demands on the Baltic States and Moldova.
When great friend Xi gets back on a plane bound for Beijing on Wednesday, Putin will not appear in front of the cameras and say something like, “My friend Xi explained the situation to me again and now I’m withdrawing my troops.” Even if the hope for moderation may die last, Putin will get what he needs now: propaganda images that are intended to have an effect both internally and externally.