After showing its first drop of the year, the Paris Stock Exchange is moving without any real trend, while Wall Street limited the damage on Thursday, with a 0.1% drop in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. The market nevertheless remains under the warning of the “minutes” of the Fed. The surprise rise of 0.1 point to 5% over one year in inflation in December in the euro zone, against an expected decline to 4.8%, also confirms that if the peak is approaching, the decline is not topical. The market is also awaiting the December employment report in the United States.
At 11:15 a.m., the Bedroom 40 lost 0.12% to 7,241.16 points in a business volume of 870 million euros.
Biggest increase in the Cac 40, STMicroelectronics increased by 5.3%. The semiconductor manufacturer announced that it achieved fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 revenue of $3.56 billion (+11.2% sequentially), above its forecast, due to a sustained demand for its products in all its markets. Over the whole of 2021, activity increased by 25% to 12.76 billion dollars.
On the SRD, trigano wins 6.5%. The motorhome manufacturer has published a turnover increase of 9.2% for the first quarter of its 2021-2022 financial year, in a context marked by strong demand for its products and despite supply difficulties. in rolling bases.
Finally, TotalEnergies gained 1.2% in the wake of crude prices while a barrel of Brent from the North Sea rose 0.9% to 82.75 dollars.
For the Fed, it’s jobs, but above all inflation
Investors were aware that the prospect of a change of course by the US Federal Reserve would be one of the challenges of 2022, but the surprisingly offensive tone of the “minutes” published on Wednesday evening surprised them. In essence, labor market tensions and runaway inflation could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy more aggressively this year and tackle balance sheet reduction.
Employment statistics, expected at 2:30 p.m., and consumer prices, expected next week, are therefore the main indicators likely to support or invalidate the prospect of a faster-than-expected tightening of the the Fed.
The United States is approaching full employment and, according to the consensus formed by Bloomberg, job creations in the non-farm sector should have more than doubled to 447,000 last month. The unemployment rate is expected to fall by 0.1 point to 4.1%. The development of the average hourly wage will also be monitored. It is expected to have risen 0.4% over the month and 4.2% year on year, after rising 4.8% in November. Economists note, however, that the December figures will not include the outbreak of contamination at Omicron since the count does not cover the second half of the month.
Fed hawks in ambush
” The jobs numbers don’t really matter in terms of Fed policy expectations just yet. What really matters to the Fed is inflation, warns Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Therefore, a low number, around 100,000 to 200,000, would not change the direction the Fed is about to take..
However, a solid number, and a better jobless rate, have the power to strengthen Fed hawks in the idea that the US labor market no longer needs Fed support, and the Fed could withdraw it if she thinks it will be harmless to the employment part of the equation. In that sense, strong employment numbers could wreak havoc on risky markets. Remember: Investors only like good numbers if they boost asset prices, and when they don’t, they lament “.