Lhe same day, at COP28, two calls were launched.
The first, supported by more than one hundred and twenty countries, aims to triple renewable electricity capacities by 2030, and to double the rate of progress in energy efficiency.
The second is a call to double nuclear electricity production by 2050. Supported by around twenty countries, it was largely inspired by ours.
The simultaneity of these two calls invites us to compare their possible effects on greenhouse gas emissions, as well as their prospects for success. The call for renewables has much more impact on the climate, and, although this may come as a surprise, its success seems more guaranteed.
A long-term work
Renewable electric capacities today amount to more than 4,000 gigawatts (GW, millions of kilowatts), led by hydroelectricity, solar and wind. They produced 8,600 terawatt hours (TWh, billions of kilowatt hours) in 2022: hydroelectricity for half, wind for a quarter, solar for a little more than an eighth, bioelectricity and geothermal bringing up the rear. In total, almost 30% of global electricity production.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recommends in its “zero net emissions in 2050” (ZEN) scenario, compatible with the objective of limiting the increase in average global temperature to 1.5°C, of increase renewable capacities to 11,000 GW, a little less than this famous tripling. Examining this scenario gives a good idea of the effects that even partial success of this appeal would have.
Not all renewable energies can progress at the same pace. In 2030, in this ZEN scenario, hydroelectricity will have progressed only marginally: building new dams in emerging countries is a long-term project, even if it is also possible to add or replace turbines on existing dams. Bioelectricity will not have quite doubled.
On the other hand, geothermal energy and especially wind power will have indeed tripled. Solar energy will have multiplied by more than five, and will represent more than half of renewable capacities.
Solar energy will then take the lead in electricity production, followed by wind and hydroelectricity. With bioelectricity and geothermal energy, these energies will provide almost 60% of the world’s electricity. Electricity production from coal will then be halved, that of gas will not have increased. However, total electricity production will have increased by 30%.
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