kyiv has never struck so far. On January 17 and the following days, several drones equipped with explosives reached the Russian region of Saint Petersburg, located 900 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The Ust-Luga terminal, overlooking the Baltic Sea and home to some of Russia’s largest liquefied natural gas infrastructure, was bombed on January 21, causing a large fire and forcing local authorities to declare a “maximum alert regime”.
These unprecedented bombings show it: the war in Ukraine is entering a new phase. After the failure of the counter-offensive carried out in the summer of 2023 by kyiv’s troops, the Ukrainian general staff has made up its mind: the front is now frozen, and for a long time. Although the fighting continues there, sometimes even intensively, as at Avdiïvka or Koupiansk, neither of the two belligerents today has the means to cross the fortified lines of the adversary, and even less to exploit a possible breakthrough.
After the Russians, who had created in the winter of 2022-2023 a triple line of defense covering the entire south of Ukraine – the famous Surovikin line, named after the general then stationed in the region – it is now the Ukrainians who dig trenches, pose anti-tank obstacles – called “dragon’s teeth” – and mine fields to prevent enemy maneuvers. “Ukrainians are sealing off their living space”recognizes a French officer.
In the air, the permanent and countless presence of observation drones makes any maneuver difficult in any case: according to the British military, it now only takes three to six minutes for the Russians to shell a target once it has been detected. “The problem at the front is that it is no longer possible to create a strategic surprise there. The quantity of ISR resources [intelligence, surveillance et reconnaissance] is such that we can no longer hide, everything is transparent”notes Stéphane Audrand, international risk consultant and reserve officer.
Blocked on the front, the Ukrainians therefore decided to take their sword elsewhere. Since the start of winter, kyiv’s forces have increased missile and drone strikes deep within the enemy’s network, on the Crimean peninsula, but also on Russian territory. “Ukraine has changed its posture and decided to focus on more targeted attacks”analyzes a military source, evoking a « attrition strategy [qui] is already obtaining tangible results ». “We are witnessing the multiplication of delaying strategies with deep strikes to obtain an operational effect”confirms Thibault Fouillet, scientific director of the Institute for Strategy and Defense Studies.
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